Northern Illinois (3-2) faces Bowling Green (2-3) on Saturday, October 12 in a crucial MAC game for both teams.
The game begins at 3:30 PM ET and can be watched live on ESPN+. The Falcons are slight favorites by 2.5 points in the contest, for a total of 47.5 points.
Read more about my Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 12.
Northern Illinois Huskies vs Bowling Green Falcons prediction
Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green Peak: Bowling Green -2.5
My best bet for Bowling Green against Northern Illinois is on the Falcons to cover, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green Odds, betting line, spread
Saturday 12 October
3:30 PM ET
ESPN+
N. Illinois OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline
+2.5
-108
46.5
-108h / -112sh
+120
Bowling Green OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline
-2.5
-112
46.5
-108h / -112sh
-142
Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green Spread: Bowling Green -2.5 Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green Over/Under: 48 points Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green Moneyline: Northern Illinois ML +120 · Bowling Green ML -142
Northern Illinois Football vs Bowling Green Football Preview
Northern Illinois Huskies Betting Preview: Disappointing since Week 2
Northern Illinois comes into this matchup coming off a home win last week against UMass.
The Huskies won the game by 14 points but faced real difficulties with UMass leading the game at halftime.
NIU pulled away in the fourth quarter with three touchdowns. We saw the Huskies run the ball on 84% of their offensive snaps for 368 yards and an average of 7.1 yards per carry.
This was impressive, considering that Ontario Brown left the game with an injury and was not a factor in the second half. Quarterback Ethan Hampton went 5 of 9 for 34 yards against the Minutemen.
The last three games following the big upset at Notre Dame have seen NIU play disappointing football with this sluggish win and a pair of losses to Buffalo and NC State.
Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview: Rivalry
Bowling Green is coming off a MAC win over Akron last week in a game the Falcons could never take control of.
BGSU took the lead late in the first half on a Jaison Patterson touchdown run and extended it on the first play of the fourth quarter with a field goal. Akron then tied the game with a pair of goals in the fourth quarter.
Fortunately for the Falcons, do-it-all Harold Fannin Jr. found the end zone late to give Bowling Green the win.
This was the second game in a row that Bowling Green really struggled after two really strong showings on the road at Penn State and Texas A&M.
The Falcons have been very impressive playing in the competition before sleepwalking through a couple of matches against lesser foes, and I expect them to look sharp in this contest.
Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois match analysis
Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Northern Illinois match up statistically:
Northern Illinois Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense Bowling Green Offense vs. Northern Illinois Defense Play Speed/Other Tackle PFF3864 PFF4295 Coverage Special Teams SP+12541 Mid 81130 Seconds Per Game 28.4 (90)27.3 (65)Rush Rate63% (7) )48% (102)
How do I bet on Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green Peak
I played Bowling Green for a -2.5 spread on Saturday.
Bowling Green needed to see growth and maturity from quarterback Connor Bazelak this offseason, and it wasn’t the Falcon’s past few mediocre performances to blame.
Bazelak has completed 78% of his passes in the last two weeks for 571 yards. Sacks and negative plays have stalled BGSU’s promising scoring drives. Northern Illinois only ranks 80th in defensive havoc, so I’ll be looking for Bowling Green to get a clean pocket for Bazelak to read the defense and make accurate throws to extend shots.
Fannin should have a huge reception day. In the last two games, he has tallied 21 receptions for 227 yards and two scores and should be a difference-maker against an NIU defense that ranks 78th nationally in defensive pass success rate and 92nd in defensive pass rush allowed.
Bowling Green also ranks 15th nationally in offensive explosion, and NIU has been prone to giving up big plays.
Northern Illinois has relied on the offensive run this year, with 64% of snaps showing them keeping the ball on the ground. The Huskies have been methodical on offense with very little explosiveness and strong execution on third down.
NIU ranks just 120th nationally in rush play explosion and 116th in pass play explosion. It’s concerning when backing a team on the road that struggles to make big plays and spends a lot of time in third-down situations. This is important because BGSU’s third-down defense has been tremendous as of late, holding teams to 17 of 51 due to being down on money.
Bowling Green has faced the 10th-fewest rushers, so that would be a really good indicator of where the front seven stands from a defense standpoint. Brown is upset, although reports this week indicate he will play in this game.
Bowling Green was my preseason pick to win the MAC title, and with the Falcons at home, I can safely count on their offense to make plays against NIU’s defense when they need it.
This should be a really fun game that has important implications for the conferences. I’ll pick the team with the best midfielder and most explosive playmaker to win and cover the number.
Pick: Bowling Green -2.5
Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green start time, TV channel, how to watch
Location: Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OHD Date: Saturday, October 12 Kickoff Time: 3:30 PM ETTV / Broadcast: ESPN+
NIU will face Bowling Green on Saturday, October 12 at 3:30 PM ET on ESPN+.
Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois betting trends
Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green Weather
About the author
Joshua Nunn is a writer for Action Network who specializes in betting on college football, specifically games at the FCS level. He is an experienced college football and college basketball bettor who previously worked in the financial services industry.
Follow Joshua Nunn @steponaduck1 on Twitter/X.
