Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are deadlocked in the latest national NBC News poll, with Trump gaining support from Republicans coming home to support him after last month’s tough debate and subsequent deficit in the polls, as well as a rating Positive for his voters. Trump’s term as president.
These are among the results of a new poll released three weeks before Election Day, which also shows that Harris’s popularity has declined compared to last month, after she received a big boost in the summer; Huge gender gap between support for Harris and Trump; Voters view abortion as a top motivating issue before voting in 2024.
“As summer turns to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stalled,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted this poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The race is a dead heat.”
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McInturff said the “headwinds” facing Harris have helped narrow the presidential contest, including concerns that the vice president represents no change from President Joe Biden and that voters see a Trump presidency in a more positive light than Biden’s.
“She is asking for another term from the current party,” McInturff said of Harris.
NBC News
However, what the poll highlights is the uncertainty about the election (10% of voters say they might change their mind, and a small segment of unclaimed voters remain on the fence), and a high percentage of voters believe this The presidential election will make “a great deal of difference” in their lives, and major challenges for both Harris and Trump. Third-party voting could also play a role, as Trump gets a small boost when third-party candidates are included in the ballot test, by one point.
In a carefully balanced election, even small changes in turnout between different groups can be the difference between a win or a loss for either party.
“The challenge for Kamala Harris: Can she meet the moment and fill the voids voters have about her?” asked Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.
“The challenge facing Donald Trump: Can he prove that the chaos and personal behavior that troubled so many during his first term will not get in the way of governing and representing America?” He added.
“Next month will determine whether the candidates are able to meet these challenges,” Horwitt said.
In the new poll — conducted Oct. 4-8 — Harris had the support of 48% of registered voters in a direct contest, while Trump had a similar 48%. Another 4% say they are undecided or will not vote for either option when forced to choose between these two major party candidates.
(Read more here from NBC News Poll about why this poll measures registered voters and unlikely voters.)
This is a change from an NBC News poll in September, which found Harris leading Trump by five points, 49%-44%, although that result was within the margin of error.
Expanded polling that includes third-party candidates also shows this shift, with 47% of registered voters in the new poll choosing Trump, 46% supporting Harris, and 7% choosing other candidates or saying they are undecided.
However, in September, Harris held a 6-point lead on this expanded ballot.
Since close elections are often determined by which party will turn out better for its voters, the NBC News poll offers a snapshot of what could happen depending on different turnout scenarios.
Assuming a more favorable environment for Republicans — which means slightly higher turnout among men, white voters and voters without college degrees — Trump leads Harris by two points, 49%-47%.
But assuming a more favorable turnout environment for Democrats — which means more women, more white voters with college degrees and more voters of color who show up at the polls — the poll results show Harris leading Trump by three points among registered voters, 49%. -46. %.
All of these results fall within a margin of error in the poll of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
(Read here for in-depth details of different turnout scenarios and how they will impact the election.)
Huge gender gap
At 48%-48%, the poll results are as close as possible. But between different groups, there are huge differences in support for candidates.
The poll found that Harris had the largest advantages over Trump among black voters (84%-11%), younger voters ages 18 to 34 (57%-37%) and white voters with college degrees (55%-41%) ).
Meanwhile, Trump leads among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%), and whites without college degrees (65%-33%).
However, what also stands out as one of the defining features of the election is the huge gender gap between Harris and Trump, with women supporting Harris by 14 points (55%-41%) and men supporting Trump by 16 points (56%-40%).
Independent voters were mainly divided in the poll, with Harris receiving the support of 44% of them compared to 40% who chose Trump. Compared to other groups, there are more independents who have not yet chosen between Harris and Trump — or who say they don’t want to choose either.
Harris’s popularity is declining
Another significant change in the NBC News poll since September is Harris’ popularity.
One of the key developments in the September NBC News poll, conducted after the Harris-Trump debate on September 10, was that her popularity increased by double digits from earlier in the summer, before she became the Democratic Party’s nominee. For the presidency. Its ratings rose to 48% positive and 45% negative (+3 net rating).
But in this latest poll, Harris’s rating is 43% positive, 49% negative (-6), with the erosion coming mainly from independents and younger voters.
That’s not too far from Trump’s 43% positive and 51% negative result (-8) in the same poll. This positive rating is the highest for Trump in an NBC News poll since he left office.
Perceptions of a Biden presidency lag behind those of Trump
Another story from the poll is voters’ different views on a Biden presidency versus a Trump presidency — a key question given the candidates’ efforts to portray themselves as agents of change in this election.
25% of voters say Biden’s policies have helped them and their families, compared to 45% who believe they have hurt them.
These numbers fundamentally reflect views on Trump’s previous presidency: 44% of voters say the former president’s policies helped them, compared to 31% who say they hurt them.
Furthermore, given the Trump presidency, 48% of voters say they approve of the former president’s job performance. That’s a higher job approval rating than Trump ever received in an NBC News poll while he was president.
It also contradicts Biden’s current approval rating of 43% in the poll.
Asked what worried them more — Harris continuing the same approach as Biden or Trump continuing the same approach from his first term as president — 43% of voters said they were more concerned about Harris following Biden’s path, compared to 41% more concerned about that. We are concerned about Trump repeating his term’s actions.
“The fact that Harris trails even slightly on this measure is a warning sign, because voters are more likely to believe that Biden’s policies hurt their families, while Trump’s policies helped their families,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.
Abortion is the most motivating issue — and Harris’ best issue
While most public polls, including a national NBC News poll in September, find the cost of living ranked top among voters’ concerns, this poll asked a different question to get a sense of voter density and motivation ahead of Election Day: Is there one issue you feel strongly? Would you vote for or against a candidate on this issue alone?
Top answers, allowing for multiple choices: abortion (22%), immigration/border security (19%), protecting democracy or constitutional rights (18%) and cost of living (16%).
The NBC News poll also tested Harris and Trump on nine different issues and presidential qualities, including who would better handle some of the key issues voters consider their top priorities.
Harris’s best issues versus Trump were abortion (19 points ahead of Trump on the issue), health care (+10), and efficiency and effectiveness (+5).
Trump’s most important issues and attributes: dealing with borders (+25), dealing with the situation in the Middle East (+18), dealing with the cost of living (+11).
On the key question of which candidate best represents change, Harris leads Trump by five points, 45% to 40%, but that’s down from her nine-point lead here in September.
Other important survey results
62% of registered voters believe the upcoming presidential election will make “a great deal of difference” in their lives. That’s the highest response to an NBC News poll question dating back to 1992.
As in presidential balloting, Democrats and Republicans are tied in congressional preferences, with 47% of registered voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 47% of voters want Republicans in charge. Democrats led by two points in September, 48%-46%, which was within the margin of error.
31% of voters believe that the nation is moving in the right direction, while 64% believe that it is heading in the wrong direction. The share of voters who believe the country is on the wrong track is the lowest it has been in the poll since August 2021, which was also the last time Biden received a positive job approval rating in the poll.
The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters, 898 of whom were reached via mobile phone, was conducted Oct. 4-8. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
