Top line
The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump still appears to be tight with just over two weeks to go before the election, according to at least six polls over the past week showing Harris with a narrow lead and three more finding Trump with a narrow lead. Little progress – although major swing states are actually restricted.
Former President Donald Trump dances on stage after speaking at a campaign rally in Greensboro… [+] Runway on October 22, 2024 in Greensboro, North Carolina. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Getty Images Basic Facts
Trump leads 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters on Wednesday — a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a poll conducted by the newspaper (the margin of error is 2.5, and respondents were able to choose candidates third party).
Trump also leads Harris by two points, 51% to 49%, nationally among likely voters, including those leaning toward one candidate, according to a HarrisX/Forbes poll released Wednesday (margin of error, 2.5), and he has a one-point lead. 49% to 48%, without what is called thinness.
Trump leads 49%-48% with smaller people, and is tied 47% without smaller people, if respondents can choose third-party candidates, according to HarrisX.
In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a three-point lead, 47% to 44%, over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” plan to defeat Trump. They voted for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.
Harris is up by three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov poll of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) with third-party candidates on the ballot and respondents given “other,” “not sure” choice options. Or “I won’t vote,” a one-point decline in her lead from the groups’ previous poll conducted Oct. 12-15.
Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in the weekly Morning Consult poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, but down from her 51% to 45% lead in the previous two polls last week.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll, also released Tuesday, showed Harris leading by three points, 46% to 43% (but two points when rounded numbers are used, within the poll’s two-point margin of error); A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last week also showed that it had a three-point lead, 45% versus 42%.
Harris’s approval rating rose by one point, 45% to 44%, in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters from October 14-18 (margin of error, 3.1), as Trump has narrowed his margins since the groups were last polled in 2018. August that found Harris up by five points.
Harris also led Trump by just one point — 49%-48% — in the Emerson College poll of likely voters released Friday, after Harris posted a two-point lead in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.
Trump regained his lead over Harris in a Fox News poll last week, finding him ahead 50% to 48% among likely voters, a change from the 50% to 48% Harris had in September, after Trump had led her by 50%. To 49%. In August.
Harris has erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her lead has declined slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to the FiveThirtyEight weighted average poll.
Who is closer to winning the elections, Harris or Trump?
Trump is likely to win 51 times out of 100, compared to 49 for Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight election forecasts. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver also gives Trump a narrow advantage of 53.1/46.6, but recently wrote that he has “never seen an election in which forecasts spend more time near 50/50.”
Big number
0.6. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average. Meanwhile, the FiveThirtyEight average shows Harris 1.8 points ahead, and Nate Silver has Harris 1.6 points ahead in his Silver Bulletin forecast.
How does Harris perform against Trump in swing states?
Harris leads in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, while Trump leads in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. That means Trump would win the election if statewide polls turn out exactly right, but all seven swing states fall within the low single digits, most with margins of less than a percentage point.
Surprising fact
An NBC News poll released on September 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll — conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters — found 54% supported Harris compared with 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they were unsure who to vote for. NBC said support for Harris is higher than when Biden was running against Trump, but is still far below previous advances by Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polls and a 50-point lead in 2016 polls. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.
How did the debate affect the polls?
Pre-debate polls found that Harris’ polling rise appears to have plateaued, including an NPR/PBS/Marist poll of registered voters conducted September 3-5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48% , down from a three-point lead in August. . Most post-debate polls show a majority of participants believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly influence the horse race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters, released September 19, found that a majority of voters in every demographic group gave positive ratings to Harris’ performance in the September 10 debate, with 67% overall saying she did well, compared to 40% who said she did well. Same thing about Trump. Harris rose 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, essentially unchanged from her six-point lead with likely voters. In late August and early August, in ABC/Ipsos polls, though, 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate.
Main background
Biden withdrew from the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his party for weeks to end his re-election bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. She immediately endorsed Harris and announced her plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to formally nominate her in a virtual call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’s rise in the opinion polls is accompanied by an increase in Democrats’ enthusiasm for the elections, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has remained stagnant at 71%. According to a Monmouth University poll conducted on August 14.
Further reading
New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Trump leads Harris by 2 points — but 12% are still deciding (Forbes)
2024 Election Swing Polls: Latest Polls Show Trump Rising in Nevada, Georgia (Update) (Forbes)
Trump and Harris Nevada polls 2024: Trump leads by 1 point in latest poll — while Harris struggles with Latinos (Forbes)
Trump and Harris polls in Georgia 2024: Trump leads in latest poll – but undecided voters may sway results (Forbes)
Arizona 2024 polls between Trump and Harris: Trump leads by three points in the latest poll (Forbes)
Trump-Harris Michigan 2024 polls: Harris narrowly leads in latest poll (Forbes)
Trump-Harris polls in Pennsylvania 2024: Harris leads crucial swing state in latest poll (Forbes)
Wisconsin Polls 2024 Trump-Harris: Harris leads by three points in latest poll (Forbes)
Trump-Harris North Carolina Polls 2024: Trump leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)
