Our football betting expert, Jones Nose, gives his take on the Premier League card and says the 11/2 shot has potential on Saturday Night Football.
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Everton v Fulham (26 October – 5.30pm) Chelsea v Newcastle (27 October – 2pm) Arsenal v Liverpool (27 October – 4.30pm) Aston Villa v Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm – Play Super 6 to win £1M!
I’m keen to face Aston Villa after a Champions League game as the season progresses when the price is right.
No matter how much Unai Emery suggests otherwise, he is all about getting his players to peak on those big nights in midweek, and that was the case again on Tuesday as they were full of spark and energy as they beat Bologna.
If they repeat those levels, a scrappy Bournemouth won’t be able to handle them but I expect Villa to fall back – as they have already done this season after a European night. They were 1-0 down and were two down at half-time against Wolves at Villa Park after playing Young Boys before eventually turning it 3-1 up with some very late goals. They were then woefully negative in a 0-0 draw with Manchester United after Bayern Munich’s victory.
It’s Bournemouth or a draw in the double chance market for me here at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
Prediction: 2-2 Brentford v Ipswich, Saturday 3pm
I’m very disappointed with Ipswich, who are going through a bit of an identity crisis. They appear to be a losing side in their attempt to become unbeatable at a higher level, and have lost much of what made them an exciting side under Kieran McKenna last season.
They have put in back-to-back woeful performances now at West Ham and against Everton and confidence looks low.
Meanwhile, Brentford are very good at beating lower-ranked teams at home – you know what you’re getting. Of their last 13 home games against teams that finished in the bottom six or were in the bottom six at the start of the day this season, they have won 11.
Picture: Sky Bet provide the equalizer for Bryan Mbeumo to score or assist in Brentford’s win
The full price is a little short at 4/6 with Sky Bet but adding Bryan Mbeumo to score or assist in the mix looks like a smart way to boost the price to Evens. The winger has been involved in 10 goals in those 13 matches against lower-ranked teams, so if Brentford are to win, there is every possibility that Mbeumo will come out on top.
Prediction: 3-1 Brighton vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm
Is this the right moment for Wolves? They are one of four teams still without a win in the Premier League, which is an impressive run of results. This is the 126th Premier League season, but the first ever in which four teams are still without a win after their first eight matches.
Brighton may have registered impressive wins at Newcastle and against Tottenham, but defensively, it seems too easy to create big chances against them, as they have conceded 7.2 expected goals in their last three Premier League matches. Wolves showed unity in defense against Manchester City last weekend and looked comfortable until John Stones put the visitors ahead with the last play of the game. I think this is where their luck changes and a 3/1 draw is not worth betting.
Score prediction: 1-2 Manchester City v Southampton, Saturday at 3pm – Play Super 6 to win £1M!
I’m all for facing Manchester City when the time is right, but even I have a hard time seeing how Southampton and their fragile defense can stop them here. You need expert organization and focus to keep Pep Guardiola’s side off the field for 90 minutes – something Southampton have shown several times already that they don’t have.
Betting angles are few and far between as always in a game of this type, but 16/1 with Sky Bet for Ruben Dias to have a shot on target from outside the box is a bit too much.
One interesting thing that has developed since Rodri’s injury with Manchester City is the amount of shots that central defenders score from open play. With teams defending so deep to try and close down City’s space from the middle, this tactic has led to Dias taking five shots from outside the box this season – two of which hit the target.
Score predictions: 4-1 Everton v Fulham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6 to win £1m!
With both teams at 6/4 with Sky Bet to win and those odds matching my numbers, this is a tough conundrum to predict.
You can play this match 99 times, and I wouldn’t be surprised if 33 of them end in a home win, 33 in a draw, and 33 in an away win.
However, backing Raul Jimenez to score first looks valuable. The striker has been one of the stories of the season and has scored in his last seven appearances for club and country (six goals and two assists).
Saturday, October 26 at 5:00 p.m., start at 5:30 p.m
The Mexican also scored five goals in eight Premier League matches against Everton, who have also conceded the second-most goals from crosses this season – an area in which Fulham are particularly strong. The top scorer is priced at 11/2 with Sky Bet and has potential.
Score prediction: 1-1 Chelsea v Newcastle, Sunday at 2pm, live on Sky Sports – play Super 6 to win £1M!
Judging by his performances when fit to start, particularly against Manchester City and Chelsea, Romeo Lavia will be a breakout star for Chelsea this season. He is a fluid and silky player with the ball and has an incredible talent for transitioning into space after pressure. His off-the-ball work is also impressive, winning 15 duels in those games and recording five tackles.
The number of tackles reflects his numbers from his time at Southampton where he averaged 2.4 tackles per 90 in the 22/23 season. His impact on Chelsea will be huge as they climb the table over the next few weeks, and the number of his tackles here against Newcastle’s aggressive midfield is worth watching. 11/10 with Sky Bet for three or more people looks good.
Prediction: 2-1 Crystal Palace vs Tottenham, Sunday at 2pm
Tottenham is a great team but not trustworthy. Even in a place like this, playing away to a winless Crystal Palace whose fans could be on the verge of turning on them, they make no appeal at all for their backing at 11/8 with Sky Bet for an away win. We need creativity to support Spurs’ corner, and that comes through in their ability to win corner kicks.
An aggressive approach of overloading the flanks and creating turnovers high up the pitch results in a high number of corner kicks – they have won 76 this season already. Ange Postecoglou’s side have won seven or more corner kicks in seven of their eight matches this season – the only blot to come from Manchester United as the game ended heading into the second half. This makes par with Sky Bet a great angle of attack.
Predicted score: 1-2 | Jones’ best bet: Tottenham will win seven or more corners (even with Sky Bet) West Ham v Manchester United, Sunday 2pm – Play Super 6 to win £1m!
West Ham have changed key components of their defense and changed the manager but their miserable defensive production remains.
In 2024, the Hammers conceded 2.19 goals per game from a sample of 27 matches. It is the most of any team present in the Premier League during that period. These are declining numbers. Defeat to Tottenham means they have made just one clean sheet in their last 26 Premier League matches.
The absence of Mohamed Quddus, who was suspended for his rampage last weekend, only helps add to the confidence in the pro-United corner here. A 5/4 away win with Sky Bet is tempting.
Image: Bruno Fernandes is 5/2 to score anytime
The better play is simply backing up Bruno Fernandes to end his 952-minute scoring drought in the Premier League. No one has taken more shots in the Premier League without scoring than Fernandes (23) with some variation going against him in front of goal.
The only thing that overcomes bad luck is hard work, and Fernandez falls into that line of thinking. He is a hardworking player and I expect him to be back on the scoresheet soon, as over the past five seasons he has scored 54 goals at a rate of one every 220 minutes. 5/2 with Sky Bet for him to score anytime would do the trick for me.
Score prediction: 1-2 Arsenal v Liverpool, Sunday at 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – play Super 6 to win £1m!
What an opportunity this is for Liverpool.
They timed it perfectly to play one of their toughest games of the season with Arsenal missing a host of key players. William Saliba is a great worker. Since arriving at the team two years ago, the Frenchman has missed just 11 Premier League matches, but the average goals conceded ranges from 0.8 per 90 with him to 1.6 without him.
But I can’t support Liverpool at those prices, with Arne Slott already stating on Wednesday that they will do everything they can to “get a result” – not saying win the game. This means he would get the draw as a good result, as would Mikel Arteta given the selection issues. Being seven points behind Liverpool even at this stage if they are beaten would be psychologically damaging.
Sunday, October 27 at 4:00pm – Start at 4:30pm
A draw suits both and he is the biggest price of the three results at 12/5 with Sky Bet. This doesn’t make sense, so it looks like an interesting betting opportunity.
Prediction: 1-1 Jones Knows Best Bet of the Weekend… Jones Knows 24/25 P&L Record Best Single Bet (1 unit) Best Triple Bet (1 unit) Day 1 Total P&L -2.10 -1 -3.10 The second round +1 -1 -3.10 The third round -3.00 -1 -7.10 The fourth round +3.90 +11 +7.80 The fifth round -2 -1 +4.80 The sixth round -1 -1 +2.80 The seventh round 0 -1 + 1.80 Round 8 -3 0 -2.80
