Each week during the 2023-24 NBA season, we’ll dive deeper into some of the league’s biggest stories in an effort to determine whether the trends are based on fact or fiction.
Fact or Fiction: Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers are going to have a long season
The NBA launched an investigation this week into one-time MVP Joel Embiid’s absence from the Philadelphia 76ers to start the season, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. The league clearly has as many questions as the rest of us about the 7-footer’s continued unavailability, and for good reason.
Embiid missed all six of Philadelphia’s preseason games with what the team described as a “left knee injury management.” He tore the meniscus in his left knee for a second time in January, requiring another surgery, sidelining him until April, when he returned at less than 100% in Philadelphia’s playoff run.
Joel Embiid missed the Sixers’ season opener against the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday. (Photo by Mitchell Liff/Getty Images)
He played for Team USA in the Olympics and showed up to training camp on time, touting his weight loss. Maybe we should have paid more attention when Embiid told us on media day, “Physically, I’m fine. I’m not where I want to be. … Until they feel like I’m ready to go, I’m ready. I’m sure they’re going to hold me back.”
Stop it, they did. The Sixers released a statement before their regular-season opener, noting that Embiid is “responding well to his individual plan and is expected to ramp up his return-to-play activities this week, including scrimmages.” He is expected to miss at least two more games to start the season.
In other words, nine months after having a second surgery on his left knee, six months after returning to the field, three months since playing in Paris, and one month into the 2024-25 season, Embiid is starting to get back into shape. This should not only set off alarm bells; It is a five-alarm fire.
Embiid is listed at 7 feet tall and 280 pounds. Believe it or not, according to Basketball Reference, only four other players in history of that magnitude have ever made one All-Star team: Shaquille O’Neal, Yao Ming, Andrew Bynum, and Brook Lopez.
Before the age of thirty
Ages 30-32
Greater Mekong Region/Season
USG%
Greater Mekong Region/Season
USG%
Shaquille O’Neal
67.5
31.0
69
29.0
Yao Ming
60.1
26.8
5.0
24.8
Andrew Bynum
46.4
19.9
0.0
0.0
Brook Lopez
63.6
25.8
73
17.2
Joel Embiid
43.3
35.5
To be determined later
To be determined later
Bynum, whose career required multiple surgeries on both knees, retired at the age of 26. Yao retired five games into his age-30 season and needed a fifth surgery on his left foot. Although Lopez managed to enjoy a long career, despite three surgeries on his right foot from 2011 to 2014, at the age of 30 he transitioned to a role less used for self-preservation, signing the semi-annual waiver in 2018. .
Only O’Neill carried his dominance into his 30s. He did not undergo a single major surgery in his twenties. He’s coming off three straight championships (and a Finals MVP) at age 30, leading the NBA in player efficiency rating each season. He won a fourth title with the Miami Heat at the age of 33, as injuries began to erode his impact, and he was never the same again, playing for four different teams in his final four seasons.
Reminder: The Sixers just awarded Embiid a three-year, $192 million contract extension, which will pay him nearly $70 million — a third of the projected salary cap — at age 34 in the 2028-29 season.
Philadelphia is counting on Embiid, who turned 30 in March, to become the next Shaq. There were also questions about O’Neill’s conditioning as a 30-year-old, but at least we had proof of what was possible with him at the helm of the dynasty. He didn’t miss a single playoff game in his 20s. Embiid has never finished a season healthy.
We also have ample evidence that Embiid is closer to the end of his career — or at least closer to moving on to a different phase — than he is now to anchoring a championship team. Take a look at this chart again. Outside of Bynum, who has been retired again for four years at this point in his career, Embiid has the highest usage and lowest availability of anyone his size in his 20s.
And we expect him to improve when he’s already sidelined to start this season? In addition to resting him the first week of the 2024-25 season, the plan to set Embiid up for a healthy playoff run is to prevent him from playing another 15 straight games. Charania reported that the program will also include “periodic time off during the regular season and routine evaluations from the 76ers’ doctors and medical staff.”
The one thing we learned from Philadelphia’s opener loss to the Milwaukee Bucks is that the Sixers are far from competitive without Embiid. They looked like a team still trying to figure out who they are when the face of their franchise isn’t on the floor, as if they haven’t had enough opportunity to prepare. It doesn’t matter in the end, because who is without Embiid has nothing to do with the title race.
So the Sixers will spend the season oscillating between a team running through their 7-foot, 280-pound giant who is plagued by injuries, and a team led instead by 24-year-old Tyrese Maxey. The 76ers version sans Embiid finished last season with a 16-27 record and was outscored by 12.6 points per 100 possessions.
In what world is this plan good? not so; It’s just the only plan available to them. He’s also counting on the health of Paul George, 34, who joined Embiid on the injured list to start the season.
George’s 74 games last season were an anomaly. He missed 40% of his games in his previous four seasons due to right shoulder, left hamstring, right foot, right elbow, right hamstring, right knee, left thigh and left knee ailments. George, who signed a four-year maximum contract with the Sixers in the offseason, hyperextended his left knee in the preseason, resulting in a bone bruise.
Again: Will this improve at 34 years old, opening the season with an injury? He will also likely miss back-to-back games this season in addition to missing the start of the year. At best, the Sixers will have their full complement of stars for three quarters of the season, to prepare one team for title contention and another to keep them from falling down the standings, as they did last season, all in the hope of reaching second place. Run the floor every night for the entirety of the playoffs. No team would ever ask for this.
Except for the Sixers, who just signed up for four more years.
Decision: Fact. Joel Embiid and the 76ers are in for a long season.
