The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the 2024 tennis season is here, with the world’s best players competing in Bercy at the Rolex Paris Masters. With that in mind, I’ll be presenting all the action over the next week or so. That starts with our Day 1 tennis predictions and best bets for Monday, October 28. Keep reading for some of my favorite picks for this loaded list, but don’t stop there. Jill Alexander will be posting his best bets on the VSIN Picks page daily, and I’ll also be adding some additional plays there.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting on!
2024 Record: 810-802 (+30.60 units)
Arthur Rendernick vs. Thomas Machak
Brandon Nakashima vs. Ugo Humbert
I’m not thrilled with the first day options on the board, so I’m assembling a two-leg hall. The first player I’m leaning towards is Machac, who has been as good as anyone in recent weeks. Towards the end of September, Machac made a run to the semi-finals in Tokyo. On the way, he earned victories over Alexei Popyrin, Tommy Paul and Alex Michelsen. Machac followed that up with a match to the final at the Shanghai Masters, defeating Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Aleksandar Vukic, Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz. He also put up a real fight against Jannik Sinner in the final.
Machac has just been serving extremely well, and his base game is tremendous—specifically his backhand arrow. With that in mind, it would be a bit surprising if he couldn’t find a way to beat Rinderknech. While Rinderknech will have the crowd in his corner, that’s all he’ll get. Rinderknech is a good server, but Machac has him beat everywhere else. Rinderknech happens to be playing poorly in this one, losing three of their last four matches. The only concern here is that Machac has had some health concerns recently. But if it doesn’t come out of the event, there’s no reason not to use it in some parts.
As far as the next matchup goes, I’m not sure why Humbert is a huge favorite at the moneyline. There is not much separating these two, and both players have the potential to play some great tennis in a solid indoor match. These are two players with huge offerings and strong fundamental games, and I don’t see either of them winning in the straight. But Nakashima has a higher percentage (88.1%) this year, and he also has an advantage in recent form. So, I’m taking Nakashima to win a set in a match that could feature some sweeping. It also doesn’t hurt that French players tend to struggle at the Rolex Paris Masters, and this is especially true for prospects with high expectations. There is pressure on these guys to perform. Nakashima wouldn’t feel any of it.
Parlay: Machac ML & Nakashima +1.5 units (-101-1.5 units)
Rolex Paris Master Futures
Carlos Alcaraz to win (+210-2 units): Alcaraz is not the player you think of when it comes to an inside-court event, but this one plays a touch slower than most. Therefore, he should be able to play his game this week. The reality is that he may not even need to play his best tennis to reach the final. His half draw is much weaker than the faulty one. And the only player I think can beat Alcaraz before the final is Grigor Dimitrov, who I support anyway. However, I put two units on the best player in the world.
Grigor Dimitrov to win (37-1-0.5 units): As I just mentioned, Dimitrov is the only player I think can beat Alcaraz in the bottom half of the draw. Dimitrov is just a great player in these circumstances, as he is a great server, has a thriving forehand basket and can keep their opponents on their toes with the different ways he can hit it. Dimitrov was actually a finalist here last year, and made the semi-finals repeat in 2019. The Bulgarian also happens to have a reasonable draw until a potential showdown with Alcaraz. And if I had both at that point, I would be very happy.
Plays added
I usually have a lot on my Pro Picks page. These plays are against the record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure to check them out. I’ll probably add more additions there, so refresh this page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. This is also where competition level plays are placed, as well as selections for lower level ATP and WTA events.
Tennis links
fsin tennis betting splits
Tennis odds
Gail Alexander Hit the Books Podcast
