CNN data correspondent Harry Enten warned Tuesday that election polls may underestimate Vice President Kamala Harris rather than former President Trump, who has historically been underestimated in election polls in previous cycles.
“If the polls were to underestimate Donald Trump again, it would be historically unprecedented,” Enten said. “What usually happens is that pollsters say, ‘Hey, we’re underestimating, and we’re not taking into account a portion of the electorate.’” They’re making adjustments, and I think that helps explain why we’ve never seen the same party get underestimated three times in a row in a presidential election, at least in the last 52 years.
CNN’s John Berman also asked Enten about the 2022 midterm elections, when Democrats beat expectations, and what they might indicate about polls in key swing states.
“What do we see in 2022 in Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin? Well, it turns out that the polling average in those states actually underestimated Democrats by four points. It underestimated Democrats by four points. And I want to apply that to the election map because [if] “It turns out the polls underestimated Democrats as much as they did in 2022, and well, Kamala Harris wins in a sweep,” Enten said.
CNN data correspondent Harry Enten warned Tuesday that Kamala Harris may be underestimated in election polls. (Screenshot/CNN)
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“I think a lot of people think the polls will underestimate Donald Trump. But when I look at the evidence, I think you have to wait a second. Maybe it will happen. Maybe it will, but I think there are people who underestimate the idea that the polls will underestimate Appreciated by Kamala Harris.”
Enten also warned that polls have underestimated the former president in the past, and while he was trailing Harris earlier in the cycle, the race for the White House in key swing states is virtually tied.
Likewise, pollster Nate Silver warned in August that Trump had been underestimated in the last two elections.
Former President Trump arrives for a question-and-answer session with Pastor Paula White at the National Faith Counseling Summit on October 28, 2024, in Powder Springs, Georgia. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
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In early October, Enten said that if the polls stalled as they did in 2020, Trump would win in a “blowout.”
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“What happens next? Well, Donald Trump will win the election by 312 electoral votes, because he wins all the major lake battleground states, plus Nevada, plus the other states he led — Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia.” He said at the time.
Hannah Banrick is an associate editor at Fox News.
