Base running is one component of a teams ability to score goals. But it’s a smaller component of more obvious skills like walks, hitting, extra base hits, and home runs. For this reason, the skill of basic operation is sometimes overlooked. Although we typically focus on stealing bases as the main aspect of base running, the biggest aspect of base running is actually advancing the bases on batted balls and converting singles into extra bases.
According to Statcast, the Astros are one of the worst teams in baseball at leading runners on batted balls. I realized this when I saw this recent tweet by Tango, one of the architects of the stats, which pointed out that the Yankees are the worst base running team and the Astros are right behind them as the second or third worst.
During the regular season, the top 10 base running teams rank on batted balls, according to Baseball Savant:
Rule that works on above/below average batted balls, 2024. Baseball Savant
The Detroit Tigers, victorious over the Astros in the playoffs, are ranked second (behind the Diamondbacks) in base running. The Tigers’ ability to advance runners with base runs was notable in that series. In the playoffs, base running can become more important, especially in low-scoring games. For example, in the World Series, this aspect of the game is evident, as the top ten base running team – the Dodgers – faces the worst base running team, the Yankees.
This does not mean that the base running determines whether a team will be good or not. Based on the statistical leaderboard, six of the top ten primary running teams (Tigers, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Brewers, Royals) have made the playoffs and four of the bottom ten teams (Yankees, Astros, Mets, Braves) have also made the playoffs. It is possible to be very bad at running the bases and still win a playoff spot, but it also helps to be in the top third of the base running.
Good base running teams can improve the efficiency of scoring runs. Taking additional bases is more efficient than running a station-station base. In game threads this year, we’ve seen a lot of complaints about the Astros’ inability to score, even when they get a hit with runners in scoring position (RISP). I’m not sure how serious this issue will be in 2024, but Statcast’s metric lends credence to the complaints.
Both the Yankees and Astros are older teams, which likely reduces the effectiveness of their base running. But “age” is not the only factor that affects basic running skill. There are older players who are good at taking extra bases. Some younger players seem to lack awareness of the rules, which makes them poor runners.
My previous articles have discussed the apparent decline in extra base power for the Astros over the past few years. Teams with lower ISO and home run power may need a higher base run rating to compensate for lower extra base hits.
The Astros are ranked 28th in the base running metric that includes stolen bases (-12.8 points). Given this poor rating, I doubt it’s a coincidence that the Astros are less efficient at translating hits with RISP into runs. The Astros ranked sixth in batting average (.267) with RISP. But the Astros rank just 14th in runs scored using RISP. Much of this discrepancy is likely due to the lower additional core power with RISP. The Astros’ ISO with RISP is ranked 21st. But it also stands to reason that a poor base running order also contributed to their reduced scoring efficiency.
In 2024, most of the Astros’ offensive players are negative in terms of base runs. There are only two positive baserunners: Jake Myers and Jeremy Pena.
Above-average running: Basic running on batted balls. Baseball Savant 2024
When stolen bases are included in the base run metric, late-season additions Ben Jamil and Jason Heyward made positive contributions (0.3 and 0.2 runs) in a small sample. Otherwise, the player’s results are poor and explain why the Astros rank so low in baserunning prowess.
So, how can the Astros try to improve their starting pitching in 2025?
Maybe a more intense effort at baserunning in spring training? Several years ago, the Astros brought Cesar Cedeno, who was a base running legend, to spring training to coach the Astros in base running. Jeff Bagwell is another former Astros player who is considered a great base runner. At the beginning of the 2024 season, manager Joe Espada said he wanted to establish the Astros’ identity as a good, aggressive baserunning team. But perhaps this was an ambitious goal in the first place. The Astros’ base run rating suggests that execution has been lacking. In 2024, Gary Bettis was the third base coach and the primary running backs coach. The Astros did not renew his contract. I’m not saying the decision to cut Bettis is due to the Astros’ fundamental running issues. But this coaching change could reset the Astros’ efforts to change the quality of their base running. The Astros will replace him with third base coach Tony Periceca. Perezchika’s role as third base coach will directly impact the progression of base running. It is unclear whether he will also have a role in coaching base runners in general. (Perezchica will also hold the title of “run blocking coordinator.”) But it’s worth noting that Statcast’s metric ranks Perezchica’s previous team, the Diamondbacks, as No. 1 in base running. Another way is to acquire players with good basic running skills. Dana Brown’s late-season signings of Gamel and Heyward provide an example of acquisitions that appear to have improved the base running. If Alex Bregman does not return in 2025, base running ability may come into consideration to replace him. Enrique Hernandez, Isiah Keener-Feleva, Matt Vierling, and Abraham Toro are third basemen who have good base run numbers and are obtainable. (I offer this as an illustrative example, rather than advocating any particular trade.) Integrating young players onto the roster can help improve base running ability, as it will improve the team’s speed. If Dezenzo’s factions are at 1b, he will likely improve the base that runs at that location. Pedro León has tremendous talent and should be a player who can improve the team’s base. Unfortunately, Leon made some critical errors on the bases in his limited appearances last year and ended up with a negative hit in base for the Astros. Maybe the Astros can improve their base with more focused spring training. Jacob Milton could get a call-up at some point next season and could be a candidate to improve base running.
