© 2024 Disney Enterprises, Inc. All rights reserved.
Sign up for our free email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news.
Long Range Forecast – November 27, 2024 Moana 2 | Domestic opening range for Walt Disney movies weekend (5 days): $120 million – $150 million
Disney is back celebrating another Thanksgiving weekend with Moana 2, in theaters the Wednesday before the holiday competing with the second weekend of Universal’s Wicked.
Although Moana ($248.7 million domestic gross) was only the fourth highest-grossing Disney animated film released in 2016, trailing March’s Zootopia ($341.2 million domestic gross), the live-action/animated film April’s hybrid The Jungle Book ($364 million domestic gross) and December’s Finding Dory ($486.2 million domestic gross) — arguably had the group’s biggest cultural impact, driven largely by its earworm-filled soundtrack (it was their fifth most The best-selling film of the year in the US and garnered an Academy Award nomination for Best Original Song and the enduring popularity of its main character, who is now part of the lucrative “Disney Princesses” canon.
It’s been popular enough for Disney to greenlight a new live-action version (scheduled for summer 2026) and a sequel series from Disney+ TV…. Then, in February of this year, Disney announced that the series would be retooled into a movie and released in theaters about nine months later. With no reviews circulating yet, it’s hard to say to what extent Moana 2’s episodic origins will be seen in the final product… but, even if the film lacks a strong, cohesive central plot, it should have no problem outperforming its predecessor. , which dominated the Thanksgiving weekend ($56.6 million three-day domestic opening and $82 million five-day domestic opening) in 2016. In fact, it has become the norm among Disney animated titles, with 2019’s Frozen 2 ($130.2 million domestic opening, $477.3 million domestic gross), 2024’s Inside Out 2 ($154.2 million domestic opening, $652.9 million domestic gross), 2018’s Incredibles 2 ($182.6 million domestic opening, $608.5 million domestic gross) domestic), 2019’s Toy Story 4 ($120.9 million domestic opening, $434 million domestic gross), 2016’s Finding Dory ($135 million domestic opening, $486.2 million domestic gross), and 2018’s Ralph Breaks the Internet ($56.2 million Domestic opening, domestic gross $201 million) All of the previous films out-grossed their respective series in their domestic market.
Disney could certainly benefit from a win for its Walt Disney Animation Studios division. After 2019’s Frozen 2 released the weekend before Thanksgiving, no Walt Disney Animation release has grossed more than $100 million domestically. Of those, three were also released on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving: 2021’s Encanto (three-day domestic opening of $27.2 million, five-day domestic opening of $40.5 million, domestic total of $96 million), and 2022’s Strange World ( $12.1 million three-day domestic opening, $18.8 million) M five-day domestic opening, $37.9 million domestic total), and last year’s Desire ($19.6 million three-day domestic opening, $31.6 million five-day domestic opening days, total $63.9 million). (The other, Raya and the Last Dragon, released in March 2021, opened daily in theaters and on Disney+, opening with $8.5 million and topping $54.7 million domestically.)
Strong presales point the way toward a potential $150 million plus five-day opening weekend for Moana 2, which benefits from a lack of widely released family titles since late September’s The Wild Robot ($35.7 million domestic opening ) and Transformers One ($24.6). m internal opening). Moana 2 will need as much as $652.9 million over its gross run to overtake Inside Out 2 this year as the highest-grossing animated film of all time.
Track updates [as of 11/1]
Release DateTitleOpen Weekend Distributor11/1/24Heretic$3 – $7MSony11/8/24Best Christmas Pageant Ever$6 – $12MLionsgate11/8/24Heretic$8 – $12MA2411/15/24Red One$20 – $40 MMGM / Amazon11 /22/24Gladiator II$60 – $80 Paramount11/22/24 Sinister Part 1 $100 – $130M Global
Boxoffice Pro is the world’s leading authority on box office forecasts and reports, reaching 98% of theatrical decision-makers.
Our full forecast reports are updated weekly by Boxoffice’s forecast team, which consists of industry professionals and senior executives representing exhibition, distribution and high-volume premium vendors. Complete reports are available to all active National Association of Theater Owners members and select industry clients.
To learn how to obtain our complete forecasting solutions, please contact sales@boxoffice.com.
For press inquiries, please contact press@boxoffice.com
