The USC Trojans (4-4, 2-4 Big Ten) head to Seattle to take on the Washington Huskies (4-4, 2-3) on Saturday night in a Big Ten battle of former Pac-12 teams.
The Trojans snapped a 3-game losing streak last week by downing Rutgers by a score of 42-20. While the College Football Playoff and Big Ten Championships are out of the picture, bowl eligibility is still a possibility for USC.
Washington finds itself in a similar boat, also sitting at .500 with two conference wins. After defeating defending national champion Michigan, 27-17, the Huskies lost 2 in a row to Iowa and Indiana.
USC enters as a -2 road favorite with an over/under of 55.5.
So, where is the value of the bet? Read on for my USC vs. Washington predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 2.
USC vs Washington game information and odds
Saturday 2 November
7:30 PM ET
Big Ten Network
USC OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline
-2
-110
55.5
-110 / -110
-130
Washington OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline
+2
-110
55.5
-110 / -110
+110
USC vs. Washington Point Spread: USC -2 (-110) · Washington +2 (-110) USC vs. Washington Over/Under: 55.5 USC vs. Washington Moneyline: USC -130 · Washington +110
USC vs Washington Prediction
USC vs Washington Pick: Washington +2.5 or better
My best bet for the Washington vs USC matchup is on the Huskies to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
USC vs Washington Betting Insights
The stakes are actually pretty high for a Pac-12 — I mean Big Ten — battle in Seattle on Saturday night between a pair of 4-4 clubs.
While neither team will be competing for a Big Ten Championship or a spot in the playoffs this season, the Huskies will likely need this game for bowl eligibility with road games at Oregon and at Penn State remaining on their schedule.
USC has an easier remaining schedule, but there’s no guarantee the Trojans will reach a bowl if they drop one at Husky Stadium with a remaining roster that includes Nebraska, UCLA and Notre Dame. This wouldn’t be the best look for the program or Lincoln Riley if the Trojans don’t make the postseason, especially after starting the year with an upset win over LSU.
It should be a competitive game throughout with two very strong attacks, but I side with the local Huskies.
I won’t be jumping off the Jedd Fisch bandwagon after UW failed to cover my spot in Bloomington last week.
Fisch has treated me like any coach would over the past two seasons, but Washington simply couldn’t overcome a pick-six and a pair of botched fourth-down conversions against a very good Hoosiers team that was able to play with a big lead in the second half, enabling them to rely on their defense. Facing a Washington defense that is more vulnerable to attacking than passing.
Under new defensive coordinator Steve Belichick, the Huskies have stifled opposing passing attacks, ranking first nationally in both EPA and pass rate.
That bodes well against quarterback Miller Moss, who leads USC’s offense with one of the highest passing rates in the country
This is a good matchup for Washington’s defense.
On the other side of the ball, there is a clear path to moving the ball on the USC defense.
You have to hit with some explosiveness — which star running back Jonah Coleman can certainly do as he averages 6.7 yards per carry — and move the ball efficiently in a patient manner through the air against a secondary that excels at limiting explosive pass plays but ranks 116th in pass rate. allowed.
Well, that should work out well for the Huskies, who haven’t had much of an explosion through the air but rank sixth nationally in pass rate.
Additionally, quarterback Will Rogers sees his production fall off a cliff when under pressure but turns off when he stays clean.
That bodes well in this particular matchup against a USC defense that is really struggling to generate natural pressure, especially after losing a number of key contributors all season, including its best linebacker and rusher.
The Trojans’ basic defensive metrics also point to a possible impending decline based on the stark contrast between their success on late downs versus their lack of success on the more predictable early downs.
Washington checks all the boxes from an advanced metrics standpoint, ranking in the top 20 nationally in a myriad of categories, including net yards per game (USC ranks 42nd in value).
The Huskies didn’t do any of the little things, which cost them several games – most notably against Rutgers where they finished with a 97% win expectancy after the game.
There were bad penalties (and too many), special teams mistakes (11-18 on field goal attempts and bad punts), ill-timed turnovers, botched red zone execution (16 touchdowns on 31 drives) and plain old bad luck. (Interceptions dropped, 7-for-17 on fourth-down attempts).
While there can certainly be systemic issues in a number of these categories, they also usually have a lot of variance, especially for a team that I consider to be generally well-coached. I do think a positive regression is on the horizon for the Huskies in the “other” set of things that happen during a football game.
Plus, it’s not like USC has set the world on fire when it comes to doing all the little things right. There’s a reason the Trojans have won 14 straight points against Penn State and Maryland.
They also failed to close chances in all three true road games.
Analysis of the USC-Washington match
Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show how USC and Washington match up statistically:
USC Offense vs. Washington Defense Washington Offense vs. USC Defense Play Speed/Other Tackle PFF132PFF509 Coverage Special Teams SP+47130Center 83977 Seconds Per Game26.8 (56)27.9 (85)Rush Rate40% (128)49% (103)
How to Pick a College Football USC vs Washington Predictor
Ultimately, I don’t see much separation between these teams even before factoring in home court advantage and the potential matchup edges I see for the Huskies on both sides of the ball.
Washington should also have the advantage of being healthy and rested after recently enjoying a bye week, while USC will play a game for the seventh straight week before its upcoming bye.
So, I had to kick a field goal with the house pup in a game that would likely go down to the finish. Let’s just hope this doesn’t mean Grady Gross will have to punt.
For what it’s worth, USC is just 44-61-2 ATS (41.9%) on the road since 2005, making the Trojans the third-least profitable road team during that span (ahead of only Kansas and Colorado).
Head coach Lincoln Riley is just 2-8 ATS as a road favorite during his time at Southern Cal, including 0-3 this season with three outright losses as favorites by 4.5, 7 and 8.5 points.
Pick: Washington +2.5 or better
USC vs Washington start time, TV channel, how to watch
Location: Husky Stadium, Seattle, WAD Date: Saturday, November 2 Kickoff time: 7:30pm ETTV / Broadcast: Big Ten Network
USC heads to Seattle on Saturday to take on Washington at 7:30pm ET on Big Ten Network.
Washington vs USC betting trends
63% of the bets and 43% of the money are on USC to cover the spread. 73% of the bets and 67% of the money on the moneyline are on USC to win outright. 51% of bets and 89% of funds are located offshore.
Betting trends via our live and up-to-date page for NCAAF public betting and payouts.
Washington vs USC weather
