With only 20 Tests remaining in the current World Test Championship (WTC) tournament, five teams have a chance of reaching the final. Here’s a look at each team’s qualification prospects.
India
Percentage: 62.82, remaining matches: New Zealand (one home) and Australia (five away matches)
Two shock defeats to New Zealand mean India have left themselves with a lot to do to reach a third successive World Cup final, although they are still currently clinging to first place, narrowly ahead of Australia. To secure their place in the top two in this tournament, India needs to win the final Test of the ongoing series against New Zealand – in Mumbai – and then beat Australia 3-2. This would take them to 64.04% points (assuming they don’t lose any points due to slower interest rates).
Even if Australia wins 2-0 in Sri Lanka, they can still only get 60.53% after two wins over India, while New Zealand will end up at 57.14% if they lose in Mumbai and then beat England 3-0 at home. In this case, South Africa will be the only team that can beat India. A 2-2 series result in Australia would leave India with 60.53% compared to 62.28% for Australia (assuming India wins in Mumbai, and Australia beats Sri Lanka 2-0).
If India lose in Mumbai, New Zealand could finish with 64.29%, but only 3-0 against England. India will then need four wins and a draw in Australia to secure their place in the final, regardless of other results.
However, India can still finish in the top two with fewer wins if the other teams competing are unable to increase their points. For example, if New Zealand lost in Mumbai and beat England 2-0, they would only get 52.38%; If South Africa loses one of their remaining five Tests, they will finish with 61.11%; If Australia beats India 3-2 and then draws 1-1 in Sri Lanka, they will finish with 60.53%.
New Zealand
Percentage: 50.00, remaining matches: India (one away match) and England (three home matches)
At the start of the series in India, it seemed very unlikely that New Zealand would remain in contention for a place in the final. But their stunning victories after two of the three Tests gave them a chance to dream. If they win each of their remaining four tests, they will finish with 64.29%. It won’t guarantee qualification, but it will certainly keep them in the mix. If they lose one of those tests, their percentage drops to 57.14%.
South Africa
Percentage: 47.62, remaining matches: Bangladesh (1 away match), Sri Lanka (2 home matches) and Pakistan (2 home matches)
If South Africa wins each of their remaining five Tests, they will get 69.44%, which will certainly be enough to qualify, as only one of India or Australia can surpass that number. Four wins and a draw would leave South Africa with 63.89%, while four wins and a defeat would bring the percentage down marginally to 61.11%, which could give them a chance if other results go their way. They have a favorable schedule, though, with home Tests against Sri Lanka and Pakistan, after the second Test of their ongoing series against Bangladesh.
If South Africa win their remaining five Tests, it will be enough for a place in the WTC final •AFP/Getty Images
Australia
Percentage: 62.50, remaining matches: India (five home matches) and Sri Lanka (two away matches).
India’s defeat by New Zealand improved Australia’s chances of reaching the final. A 3-2 win over India and a 1-0 win in Sri Lanka would take them to 62.28%, ensuring they finish ahead of India. New Zealand can still get past that, but only if they win each of their remaining matches. If New Zealand falters, South Africa are the only team that can get past Australia. To ensure qualification without relying on other results, Australia needs five wins from its remaining seven matches.
Sri Lanka
Percentage: 55.56, remaining matches: South Africa (2 away matches) and Australia (2 home matches)
With a full 24 points from their last two Tests, Sri Lanka have made a strong push towards the top two in this WTC tournament. Their remaining four Tests will be against two opponents also in contention for the final. If they win each of those matches and get an additional 48 points, they will finish the tournament with a 69.23% win and secure a place in the final regardless of other results. If they lost one game and won three, they would end up with 61.54%, which would still have a chance of qualifying, depending on the other results.
England
Percentage: 40.79, matches remaining: New Zealand (three away)
The two defeats in Pakistan mean England could finish the tournament with a maximum of 48.86% even if they beat New Zealand 3-0 in their last series of the current tournament. This will not be enough to get a place in the final.
Even if Pakistan wins their last four Tests, it will be too late to make a difference in this World Trade Centre.
Pakistan
Percentage: 33.33, remaining matches: South Africa (2 away matches) and West Indies (2 home matches)
Pakistan’s home form has shown some revival, but it is too late to make a difference this tournament. Even if they win each of their last four Tests, they can only finish with 52.38%, with no chance of reaching the final.
Bangladesh
Percentage: 30.56, matches remaining: South Africa (1 home) and West Indies (2 away).
The three defeats in the last three Tests to India and South Africa have hurt Bangladesh badly – after having 45.83% points at one stage, they are down to 30.56% now. Even if they win each of their remaining three tests, they will only improve to 47.92%, which won’t be enough for a place in the top two.
West Indies
Percentage: 18.52, remaining group: Bangladesh (2 home matches) and Pakistan (2 away matches)
West Indies have already played four series and scored just 20 runs out of a possible 108. Even if they win the last four tests, they can only finish with 43.59%, thus falling out of the race for a place in the WTC final. .
Rajesh is the statistics editor at ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats
