First game, folks. Get your mind right. There are still about 37 other teams, but first, the Tide start their season with a late game at Mausoleum against the worst opponent they will face all season.
I’ll be taking over BB4 this year, so the bi-weekly split will look a little different. We’ll still rely on KenPom, of course. But I probably won’t be so precise about individual player metrics, and look to the bigger picture instead. I will also be adding NET and other analytical rankings in the previews, as well as providing the point spread for the game. I hope to accomplish all of this in 800-1000 neat words. (Although I can’t clear my throat without a whole paragraph, as you well know).
As a general rule, we’ll focus on the opponent, but this new injury is worth sharing:
Alabama coach Nate Oats said Latrell Wrightsell, Grant Nelson and Aiden Sherrill are all expected to play, but each will come off the bench and on a minutes restriction tomorrow against UNC Asheville. @TheFieldOf68.
– Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) November 4, 2024
Well, let’s dive into what might, objectively, be the only “easy” game on the Tide’s schedule this year:
UNC Asheville
‘Bama -24.5 (160.5 h/sh)
KenPom Prediction: 194 (144 ATK, 267 DEF, 234 RPM)
Ivan Mea Prediction: 165 (147 ATK, 179 DEF, 138 RPM)
Bart Torvik Prediction: 142 (118 ATK, 170 DEF, 152 RPM)
The Asheville Bulldogs travel to Coleman Coliseum to face the highest-ranked opponent in program history. This is already daunting enough, but having to do this while their campus and community continue to sink in from Helen, is even more so. Complicating all of this, UNCA may return two of its three top scorers, but who they lose is a bigger blow than who they return.
We did a brief preview of UNCA over the offseason, but looking back, here’s who the Tide will welcome:
UNC Asheville is a below average opponent in T3 that doesn’t do anything great but is pretty average across the board in most individual aspects of the program. The “best” part of UNCA is the defense, and even that is just 99th decent.
They finished second in the Big South and finished the season 22-12. But it was a mixed report card. UNCA played Kennesaw closely, splitting the season series. They also split with conference champion High Point. The Bulldogs have had some nice conference wins against Winthrop and Presbyterian, and a very good win on the road against OOC Western Kentucky. But against top teams, UNCA has been outgunned, losing to every Power 5 opponent by 20+ and not getting out of the 60s to do so.
The Bulldogs have managed to rack up nearly two dozen wins on the back of a trio of top scorers: Drew Pember, Josh Banks and Fletcher Abbey.
Both Abbey and Banks return this season at the point guard position, but it’s hard to say just how bad Asheville is missing Pember. Not only was Drew the Dogs leading scorer, he led the entire Big South team with 20.2 PPG. He ranked second in the conference in rebounds per game, eighth in effective shooting from the floor, and even led the conference in blocks per contest. The Bulldogs moved their offense out of position last season to free up Abee and Banks on the outside, but there’s no one else on the roster who appears to be a candidate for Player of the Year, as Pember was.
Expect the Bulldogs to be a rolling team again this year (they are a mid-paced team), with the offense working primarily inside to outside forwards, then through the banks. The preseason Big South Second-Teamer is one of the best returning shooters in the league (40%), and is taking good volume at 5 per game. His backcourt mate, Abe, is a better shooter at about 41% from three. The pair is averaging nearly 11 three-pointers and 23 points per contest, and you might think they’d become more volume shooters this season. Bama’s guards will be tested at least early in the season, against a very accurate guarding tandem.
UNCA also added 5’10” spark plug Jordan Marsh, a very accomplished pickpocket for his size, and G Justin Marsh, who averaged 26 points in twelve starts at Loyola Marymount (11.1 PPG).
Below, expect the Bulldogs to use committee after committee: F Toyez Solomon is probably the best immediate candidate to replace Pember. He emerged late last season, at the bottom of the table posting 9.6 points per game, 1.4 blocks per game, and 3.9 rebounds. Super Senior F Greg Gannt flashed some deft rebounding near the bucket. And also keep an eye on someone who could come off the bench to challenge the Tide’s revamped interior game, 7’1″ Cincinnati transfer Sage Tolentino. His previous work had been limited to some very late cleansing missions, but at the age of 240, he has come into the spotlight in this position.
Speaking of big white centers, which have been the bane of Alabama’s existence for so long, don’t think this is necessarily a small team either. The guards and wings are D1 sized – their range spans from 6’2″ to 6’7″ in shooting and ball handling positions. The only application status transfer is that Jordan Marsh is a young player. So, it’s not an ordinary low-level team, size-wise.
He’s also a veteran player: Seven contributors and/or starters return from last season, including four seniors, and they added another in the portal. So, they won’t be in awe of this moment either or they will just be an inexperienced friend in the Alabama fish bucket.
But, even the Big South coaches realize that a good pair of pitchers, some emerging scoring talent, won’t be enough to catapult UNCA to the top of the league, or even come close to replacing Pember’s contributions as the conference’s best player. : Asheville is expected to finish fourth.
However, it is a team built the right way with a great mix of veterans and youth, center and perimeter, plenty of size at low points, and leadership. But it’s also a team that Alabama will likely dominate inside the paint, simply destroying near the basket. Outside of Tolentino, there is no one on the roster taller than 6’9″. “Big South” is not “Big in the SEC.”
Respect your opponent, sure, but the Tide should be able to clear benches early in this matchup.
The tide rolls, and it chimes in at the bottom. That’s the topic of your game for this evening. Festivities begin at 8:00 p.m. and can be broadcast on ESPNU and online radio at 100.9.
‘Bama poll -24.5?
9%
Covers UNC-Asheville (17 votes) 176 total votes Vote now
