Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through our links. Read our editorial standards for more information.
I think Gonzaga is a legitimate national title contender this season.
It’s rare to see so much returning production from a strong program in the transfer portal era, but Mark Few returns more than 80% of last year’s minutes.
Meanwhile, Baylor lost three key players to the NBA draft and will once again turn its backcourt around. However, the Bears are loaded with offensive talent.
It’s the defensive side of the ball where things get tough for Waco.
Read on for my predictions for Baylor vs. Gonzaga and my college basketball picks for this brutal opener.
Baylor vs. Gonzaga Odds TeamSpreadMoneylineTotalBaylor+6 (-108)+200Over 156.5 (-110)Gonzaga-6 (-112)-245Under 156.5 (-110)Odds via DraftKings Baylor vs.
(11:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
The Bears run a spread offense that relies on athletic guard play and elite shooting.
This list will have no problem implementing.
Scott Drew enters Monday as the longest-serving coach in the Big 12. AP
Five-star recruit VJ Edgecombe should be the next new phenom in Waco, as he is a legitimate offensive option that will dominate ball screens.
Returning wings Jayden Nunn and Langston Love both shot over 44% from deep last year, and coach Scott Drew pulled two elite inside-outside weapons out of the gate in Jeremy Roach (43% from 3 last year with Duke) and Norchad Omer (35% From 3 last year with Miami).
The offense should play against Gonzaga, as I expect the Bulldogs’ ball-screen coverage to decline after the team lost star defenseman Anton Watson to graduation in the offseason.
Conversely, Baylor’s defense has fallen off a cliff the past few seasons, losing Drew’s patented fastball scheme.
Gonzaga guard Dusty Strummer. AP
The Bears’ interior defense was abominable last year (52% two-point shooting allowed, 257th percentile nationally), and their transition defense was similarly leaky (1.09 PPP allowed, 20th percentile).
This does not bode well for the Zacks, who relentlessly press the rim in transition.
And again, I don’t expect a decline in production with all this production coming back.
Graham Icke is among the best interior scoring big men in the country, Ben Gregg is a matchup problem in the frontcourt, and the wings’ corps is deep and explosive (especially with Pepperdine transfer Michael Ajayi and Arkansas transfer Khalif Battle in the mix).
Betting on college basketball? Pick Baylor vs. Gonzaga
Ultimately, I expect a fast-paced, high-scoring match. Both powerful attacks have clear and easy paths to gain points against the opponent’s defence.
Pick: Over 156.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Why trust the New York Post to bet
Tanner McGrath has been a professional athlete with disabilities since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball, and is an avid fan of the Vermont Catamounts, Miami Marlins, and any local underdog team. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot over Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young Championship.
