The Week 9 finale pits Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Kansas City, Missouri, on “Monday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN). The Chiefs (7-0) sit atop the AFC standings and are favorites to win the Super Bowl in ESPN betting (+400). Despite Mahomes’ shaky play this season, the Chiefs’ offense has remained strong, relying on a fast-paced offense led by Kareem Hunt and a physical defense.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers (4-4) are looking to bounce back after losing back-to-back games in Weeks 7 and 8 to the Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons, respectively. Tampa Bay enters the game with some key players out with injury, including their top two receivers in Mayfield, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. As such, the Chiefs opened as 8.5-point favorites at the start of last week as the line has since moved up half a point to Chiefs -9. The total for the match remained the same at 45.5 points.
Here’s everything you need to know to bet on our favorite Buccaneers-Chiefs vs. Seth Walder bets.
Current odds as of press time, provided by ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: Chiefs -9
Moneyline: Chiefs (-450), Pirates (+340)
Over/Under: 45.5
Halftime Spread: Chiefs -5.5 (-110), Buccaneers +5.5 (-110)
First half money line: Chiefs (-320), Buccaneers (+240)
Pirates’ Score: 26.5 (Over-105/Under-125)
Chiefs Total Score: 20.5 (Over-110/Under-120)
Choice of Seth Walder
Nick Bolton Under 8.5 Tackles + Assists (-118)
Bolton has a tackle rate of 14% – meaning he registers combined tackles on 14% of his defensive plays – which is about average for an off-the-ball fullback. As is the case with most midfielders too, Bolton has a much higher tackling rate on runs designed for the opposition (20%) than running backs from the opposition (11%). In this case, Bolton should expect to see fewer opposition runs: the Chiefs are 9-point favourites, meaning the Bucs are more likely to play from the back and therefore pass more frequently. Plus, the Bucs are overloaded with passes anyway: Tampa Bay has the fourth-highest pass-per-expectation rate in the NFL, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. My model predicts 7.5 tackles + assists for Bolton.
Props
Patrick Mahomes’ total passing yards: 249.5 (Over-110/Under-120)
Mahomes’ total passing points: 1.5 (over-120/under-110)
Baker Mayfield’s total passing yards: 224.5 (Over-155/Under-+120)
Mayfield’s Total Passing Points: 1.5 (Over +135/Under -170)
Rushing
Kareem Hunt’s total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over-140/Under-110)
Bucky Irving’s total rushing yards: 34.5 (Over/Under-130)
Rachaad White’s total rushing yards: 29.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Mahomes’ total rushing yards: 19.5 (Over-120/Under-110)
Mayfield’s total rushing yards: 69.5 (Over-125/Under-105)
ReceivingTravis Kelce looks to take the Chiefs to their first-ever Threepeat in the Super Bowl Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Total receiving yards for Travis Kelce: 59.5 (Over-130/Under doubles)
Cade Otton Total Receiving Yards: 49.5 (Over-130/Under-Doubles)
Jalen McMillan’s total yards: 39.5 (Over-120/Under-110)
DeAndre Hopkins total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over-115/Under-115)
Xavier Worthy Total Receiving Yards: 34.5 (Over-125/Under-105)
Total Receiving Yards for Noah Gray: 24.5 (Over-105/Under-120)
Rachaad White’s total receiving yards: 24.5 (Over-125/Under-105)
Justin Watson’s total receiving yards: 19.5 (Over-120/Under-110)
Bucky Irving’s total yards: 19.5 (Over +115/Under -145)
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
The Buccaneers are 10-2 ATS on the road since the start of last season, including 8-2 ATS as underdogs on the road.
Five straight Buccaneers games have surpassed the total.
Patrick Mahomes is 22-28 ATS in his career when he puts up at least seven points (0-2 ATS this season). Unders is 29-19-2 in Mahomes’ home starts, including 14-6 over the past three seasons.
Baker Mayfield is 5-10 ATS in primetime games. The Chiefs are 3-0 ATS in primetime games this season.
Underdogs by at least six points are 21-12 ATS this season. Underdogs with at least seven points are 14-6 ATS. The 7-9 point underdogs are 14-1 ATS this season.
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