The Liberty Flames (5-2, 3-2 CUSA) face the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (3-6, 2-3 C-USA) on Saturday, Nov. 9 in Conference USA. The game begins at 1 PM ET and can be watched live on CBS Sports Network.
The Flames have suffered two straight losses, the most recent of which was a 31-21 defeat at the hands of Jacksonville State. Meanwhile, the Blue Raiders picked up a 20-13 win over UTEP in their last time out.
Liberty is pegged as 10.5-point favorite in the contest with the over/under set at 54.
Let’s take a look at my Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 9.
Liberty vs middle tennessee odds
Saturday 9 November
1 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
Freedom OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline
-11.5
-110
55
-110 / -110
-450
Middle Tennessee OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline
+11.5
-110
55
-110 / -110
+350
Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee Point Spread: Liberty -11.5 (-110) · Middle Tennessee +11.5 (-110) Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee Total: Over/Under 55 Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee Moneyline: Liberty -450 · Middle Tennessee +350
Liberty vs Middle Tennessee picks and predictions
prediction
My best bet on Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty is on the Flames to cover the 10.5 point spread available at bet365 Sportsbook.
Money line
passes
Spread
Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee Pick: Liberty -11.5
Over/under
Liberty Flames vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders College Football Preview
Liberty Flames Betting Preview: Bottom of the Market
Liberty is looking to get its season back on track after losing twice in a row in conference play, and this game this week will be a true watershed moment in determining the rest of the course of the season.
The Flames had been the favorite in CUSA all season before a stunning and inexcusable loss to Kennesaw State, followed by another home defeat to Jacksonville State.
This is a much weaker team than the 2023 team that went through CUSA undefeated, and bettors have felt a lot of pain backing Liberty.
This group is just 1-7 against the spread this year, and many of those games haven’t come close to covering the number. This week we get the price of Liberty which appears to be the absolute bottom of the market.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Preview: On the Struggle Bus
Middle Tennessee is coming off a 20-13 road win last week over UTEP. In typical Miner fashion, ineffective offensive play and missed opportunities helped the Blue Raiders.
MTSU took control late in the fourth quarter on a one-yard touchdown run by quarterback Nicholas Fattiato before stopping UTEP, which threw into the end zone on the last play of the game.
The Blue Raiders have played some of the best teams in the CUSA and have had a tough non-conference schedule, but this is not a good football team.
I have a hard time seeing them staying close this week against Liberty.
Analysis of the Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee match
Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show how Liberty and Middle Tennessee match up statistically:
Liberty Offense vs. Middle Tennessee Defense Middle Tennessee Offense vs. Liberty Defense Play Speed/Other PFF Tackles 3,489 PFF Coverage 53,104 Special Teams SP+12,187 Quarterback 817,130 Seconds per Game 27.4 (71)28.9 (111) Rush Rate62% (13)44% (125) )
How to Pick a College Football Prediction My Liberty vs Middle Tennessee
I’m going to go against the grain here and put 10.5 with the flames. Freedom has advantages in almost every statistical metric you can measure a football team by.
Defensively, MTSU will have a tough job here.
The Blue Raiders rank last in the FBS in defensive EPA per play and rank 120th nationally in defensive finishing. The middle is allowing 449 yards per game on 6.5 yards per play while giving up 33.7 points per game.
The Blue Raiders struggle to defend the offensive line and are in the top 10 nationally in both defensive rush success rate and defensive pass success rate.
MTSU’s secondary allows 8.2 yards per pass, and that’s where Liberty should be able to properly attack.
The Flames run the ball well, averaging 230 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry on the ground.
The Liberty did a good job of protecting quarterback Kaidon Salter, who was sacked just 11 times out of 184 dropbacks. MTSU ranks 118th in foul play and likely won’t put enough pressure on Salter to have a significant impact on his performance.
The Blue Raiders have also been backed into the red zone more frequently this year having already faced 44 red zone trips to go along with the many explosive touchdowns they have allowed. The Raiders have surrendered 32 touchdowns on those 44 red zone trips.
The Flames struggled at times in the red zone, but with the lack of pressure and Salter’s movement around the goal line, I expect them to score more often in this matchup.
MTSU has been better offensively than defensively, but by no means a lights out team. He scored 20 points against UTEP, actually the second-best game for the Miners’ defense this season.
The main concern here is that MTSU can’t run the ball. The team is averaging just 79 yards per game on the ground with an average of 2.8 yards per carry.
The fire has created enough pressure to create cause for concern. MTSU’s offensive play has been abysmal all season. Fattiato has been sacked 23 times this year, and there have been numerous other instances where pressure has resulted in ‘throw-away’ passes or frenetic short bursts.
It’s truly a deserted or silent time for Liberty trying to correct course for this season. The Flames need some help, but they are not out of the conference race and have a few extra days to prepare for this game.
Three weeks ago, before the Kennesaw State loss, Liberty was a 21.5-point favorite here, so we definitely get value in that number. Put it with the flames.
Pick: Liberty -11.5 (-110, bet365) | Play to -13 (-110)
Liberty vs Middle Tennessee start time, channel, live stream, how to watch
Location: Johnny Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, Tennessee Date: Saturday, November 9 Kickoff Time: 1 PM ETTV / Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee will be played at Johnny Floyd Stadium on Saturday, November 9 at 1 PM ET. You can stream the game live on CBS Sports Network.
Liberty vs Middle Tennessee betting trends
31% of the bets and 75% of the money are on Middle Tenn to cover the spread. 95% of the bets and 97% of the money on the moneyline are on Liberty for a straight win. 61% of the bets and 74% of the money are on the bottom.
Betting trends via our live and up-to-date page for NCAAF public betting and payouts.
Middle Tennessee vs Liberty Weather
About the author
Joshua Nunn is a writer for Action Network who specializes in betting on college football, specifically games at the FCS level. He is an experienced college football and college basketball bettor who previously worked in the financial services industry.
Follow Joshua Nunn @steponaduck1 on Twitter/X.
