Girona and Feyenoord meet in a crucial Champions League match after both lost in their opening match.
Girona had a meteoric rise up the La Liga table last season to finish in the top four, but what usually happens with teams that have achieved this kind of sudden success is that their roster has been decimated. This is exactly what happened to Girona, as they lost their three most important players, and it had an impact on the start of their La Liga campaign.
Feyenoord was defeated by Leverkusen in the opening match of the Champions League. Their results and numbers in the Eredivisie are much lower than they were under Arne Slott, as they are still searching to find their identity. It’s only the second week’s game, but missing out on three points here would put Feyenoord in a terrible position, so they really need to get a result from this game.
Here is my prediction for the match between Girona and Feyenoord.
Girona vs Feyenoord. Odds, Picks, Prediction
Wednesday 2 October
12:45 PM ET
Paramount+
Girona OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline
-0.5
-110
2.5
-170° / +120°
-110
Feyenoord OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline
+0.5
-120
2.5
-170° / +120°
+275
Moneyline odds between Girona and Feyenoord: Girona -110, Feyenoord +275, Draw +285 Girona vs. Feyenoord Over/Under: 2.5 goals (Over -170, Under +120) Girona vs. Feyenoord pick: Over/3
I support more than 3 in the match between Girona and Feyenoord.
Girona has had a difficult summer, losing their star striker Artem Dovpik, their best winger Savio and their best midfielder Alexei Garcia. However, they have managed to retain their manager Michel, meaning their style of play has not changed. The reason for their rapid rise up the table was their aggressive style of attacking football.
They were constantly building from the back and were able to get excess pressure out wide against every opponent so that once they got into the final third they could create a lot of chances from wide areas. Last season, no one in La Liga created more chances than Girona from crosses, which will be a big key against Feyenoord.
When Girona get into the final third, they will often try to increase the pressure on the opposition’s last defensive line by employing a 3-1-6 formation with their greatest success coming from dropping their attackers into the half space to create increased 3v2 wide areas. This is what allowed Girona to produce impressive attacking numbers, averaging 1.86 xG per 90 minutes in a very low level league. Their attacking numbers have dipped, but they still average 1.38 xG per 90 minutes.
The problem with playing with such strength is that it left Girona very open to teams that can hit them quickly on the counter-attack. They have allowed 1.43 xG per 90 minutes in La Liga and in their first match against PSG they were not good defensively, conceding more than two expected goals.
Feyenoord look a bit different under Brian Briskey than they did under Arne Slott, and not for the better. They were poor defensively in their only Champions League game against Leverkusen, conceding four goals in a game that never looked competitive.
Priske’s out of possession tactics are a bit different to those of Arne Slot and Feyenoord seems to be taking some time to play with them at the highest level. How he sets his team up out of possession will be very important as he likes to take a zonal approach where each player picks up anyone who comes into their area on the pitch. If they stay disciplined, it sometimes works, but as I’ve seen when they take on teams like Leverkusen, who use the same three- and four-man possession system as Girona, it leaves them in a lot of situations where they have a numerical disadvantage.
Feyenoord will be back down defensively and will likely struggle in this match because they have lost two of their best defensive players in Mats Weaver, who is now at Brighton, and Lucharel Gertruida, who is now at RB Leipzig. Even in the group stage of the Champions League last season, they conceded eight expected goals against Atletico Madrid, Lazio and Celtic, and they are not close to Leverkusen’s level.
Girona and Feyenoord match predictions
Feyenoord are still a good attacking team who can exploit Girona’s aggressive tactics in possession. Feyenoord still retain Santiago Jimenez up front and he averaged 2.7xG per 90 minutes in the Eredivisie last year under Slott.
Although Girona lost two of their best attacking players and their attacking numbers declined, that is because they played against a lot of really negative teams in La Liga and had difficulty breaking down low blocks, but that is not how Feyenoord will set up defensively.
With how aggressive these teams are both in possession and in possession once the first goal is scored, the game will start with plenty of chances on both ends.
I have a 3.25 expected goals for this matchup, so I like the value at the top.
Pick: Over 3 (+106 via bet365)
About the author
BJ Cunningham started betting in college and began his career with Action Network as a part-time writer in January 2020, eventually becoming a full-time writer. He previously worked as a financial auditor for six years and now specializes in European soccer, college soccer, and baseball betting, with a focus on advanced data. BJ is a regular contributor to Action Network’s podcasts and live betting shows, including Wondergoal, Payoff Pitch and Green Dot Daily.
Follow Brad Cunningham @BJCunningham22 on Twitter/X.
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