Believe it or not, this is a quiet season for Justin Jefferson.
Through four weeks, the Vikings’ star receiver is averaging just 89.5 yards per game — his lowest mark since his rookie season. He has just 20 receptions — an average of five per game, which is well below the average (6.5) in his first four seasons. Yet he also did this:
And this:
And this:
Let’s not mince words: Justin Jefferson is the greatest receiver in the NFL, and he’s not even close.
Earlier this season, Jefferson was asked about how defenses defend Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson, and if he could learn anything from that. “With all due respect, I’m not Garrett Wilson,” Jefferson replied.
With respect, Jefferson is not like any other receiver in the league. Other top players — Davante Adams, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, et al — aren’t at his level. This is a group of players who will likely make it into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. But Jefferson isn’t just on a Hall of Fame path, he’s on an all-time great path. These other men have their faces carved on Canton busts. Jefferson is etching his image into the Mount Rushmore of wide receivers. It’s a subtle but important distinction.
No one disputes that Jerry Rice is the best receiver in history. He is the NFL’s career rushing leader with over 5,000 receiving yards, despite playing in an era of fewer passing yards. He won three Super Bowls. He played for 20 seasons. Rice is goat. After him, most will pick Randy Moss as the second-best receiver in history. After moose? Third place becomes difficult. Choose Your Legend: Larry Fitzgerald, Don Hutson, Terrell Owens, et al. Argue about it with your friends.
Jefferson is on his way to securing the number. 3 place for himself. He could even replace Moss, if his career goes as well as it can (I’ll refrain from saying he can replace Rice, if only because of Rice’s longevity and rings). The incredible yardage pace that Jefferson has been on has never been accomplished enough in just over four seasons of his career. He has more receiving yards than any player in history in 64 career games, with a very good gap between him and no. 2 Julio Jones:
Receiving Leaders Through 64 regular season games, player catches touchdown yards, player catches touchdown yards Justin Jefferson 412 6257 34 Julio Jones 405 6052 34 Odell Beckham Jr. 413 5811 45 Michael Thomas 473 5529 32 Randy Moss 308 5396 53 Jerry Rice 2 86 5366 53 J Green 354 5291 38 Anquan Boldin 388 5132 26 Torry Holt 306 5088 23 Isaac Bruce 329 4975 31
Jefferson averaged 97.8 yards per game during his career. The next highest mark is Calvin Johnson with 86.1 yards per game. Although Jefferson hasn’t had time to age and will likely put up declining numbers that lower his career average, keep in mind that even the current young stars are nowhere near him. Chase (82.0), Hill (80.9) and Lamb (78.0) are all more than 15 yards behind Jefferson. Also keep in mind that Jefferson’s 2024 average of 89.5 yards per game is better than the career average of any player in history, yet it brings down his career average. It may seem like we’re in the twilight zone when looking at these numbers.
To get a sense of what Jefferson’s career numbers look like against the best players in history, here’s a chart showing the cumulative receiving yards of some Hall of Famers, plus Jefferson:
Clearly, Jefferson has a long way to go. The sheer length of Jerry Rice’s line on this chart is mind-boggling, but at least over four-plus seasons, Jefferson is on pace to crush all of these guys.
Here’s Jefferson’s comparison to some stars who are retired or whose careers are likely coming to an end:
Jefferson didn’t match the pace of Odell Beckham Jr. early in his career but has surpassed him since then, and Jones is clearly Jefferson’s closest competitor now. But we should consider two pieces of context. The first is that Jones played in a more pass-friendly environment than Jefferson. From 2011 to 2015 (Jones’s first five years in the league, which covered his first 65 games), NFL teams averaged 235.4 yards per game; From 2020 to 2024, teams averaged 224.8 passing yards per game. That’s a drop of nearly five percent, yet Jefferson still outperforms Jones. The second piece of context is that Jones came into the league at 22 years old, but Jefferson did so at 21 years old. Add to that Jones missing 15 games in his first five seasons due to injuries (compared to just seven games missed by Jefferson), and Jones was just over a month away from his 27th birthday when he played his 64th career game. Jefferson turned 25 in June. So Jefferson is roughly two years younger than Jones at the same point in their career.
Do you think there are current stars – like Chase – who might be close to Jefferson when it comes to production in their first four seasons? Here’s how Jefferson compares to some of the current top offerings:
Chase stands apart from the rest of his peers… but still falls far short of Jefferson. Chase played in 49 career games and accumulated 4,017 receiving yards, the seventh-most in history to start a career. Jefferson had 4,787 in his first 49 games, the highest mark in history by more than 200 yards. (And if you’re wondering why Adams isn’t in this group, it’s because he had a very slow start to his career in Green Bay; his 3,236 receiving yards over his first 64 games ranks 165th in NFL history. Think about that :Jefferson has over three thousand more receiving yards than Adams did at the same time in their career!)
And finally, just for fun, here’s how Malik Nabers, the latest LSU star to burst onto the NFL receiving scene, compares:
Through four games, Nabers has 386 receiving yards, while Jefferson has 348 through the same point in his career. So, it’s very early, very, very early, but technically Nappers is ahead of Jefferson. (Although it took an obscene and unsustainable 52 goals to reach that total. The Giants star, who is unlikely to play in Week 5 due to a concussion he suffered last week, will need a jump in efficiency to maintain that pace.)
You might think Jefferson is benefiting from a friendly era in the passing offense, especially when compared to Price, Moss and some of the other Hall of Famers above. This is true to an extent, but even when adjusting to the times, Jefferson comes out on top. Take Rice, for example. When he began his career in 1985, the team averaged 226.6 passing yards per game. In 2023, that number was 236.3 (not as big a difference as you thought, right?). If we increase Rice’s 1985 numbers by 4.3 percent to account for the difference — and do the same for 1986, 1987, etc. — we can estimate that Rice would have gained 5,750 yards in a passing environment similar to 2023. As for Jefferson, his numbers actually declined somewhat (Passing was inflated in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2022 and 2023), but he still registered 6,070 adjusted yards.
Jefferson leads all other Hall of Famers when adjusting for their yards as well. So don’t make the mistake of thinking that the passing boom is fueling Jefferson’s ridiculous pace – he’s simply too good.
And that slow start to 2024 referenced at the top of this piece? It may not be so slow. Jefferson is actually putting together his most efficient season ever. He is averaging 3.17 yards per route run, which would be the best mark of his career. The reason his yardage is so low is because the 4-0 Vikings were simply too good and were throwing the ball much less than usual. Minnesota has recorded just 106 pass attempts this season, which ranks fifth in the league. Last year, the Vikings had fourth-most attempts. The year before that, they finished third. Jefferson’s initial size stats could jump if the Vikings finally get into some negative game scripts and Sam Darnold starts throwing the ball around the yard.
Want advanced stats for Jefferson? Pro Football Focus has ranked him in the top five at the position in every season of his career. Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon charted Jefferson’s routes from 2023 and found that defenses double-covered Jefferson on 15.8 percent of plays, the highest rate in the league. In 2022, that number reached 21.1 percent, again the highest in the league. (Harmon also gave Jefferson high marks for his performance on nearly every route down the field, against any defensive coverage.) Since he entered the league, Jefferson leads the NFL in expected points added per run. ESPN’s analytics department has him ranked as the second-best receiver since he entered the league, and I’ll be emailing them soon to correct the error, because I’m sure they meant to rule him out. 1.
The only real way Jefferson fails the GOAT debate is by relegation. Jefferson has 34 in his career. Rice and Moss each have 53 goals over 64 games. Known for not catching many touchdown passes, Jones had the same 34 scores as Jefferson over 64 games. Jefferson’s production simply hasn’t translated into the end zone the way it has with some of the game’s other stars. Maybe, at 6-foot-1, his frame and skill set aren’t suited to the end zone. Maybe he was unlucky. At least this year, he has four receptions in four games, tied for the league lead and well above his usual average — if that continues, he could catch up again in the scoring department. I certainly wouldn’t rule it out.
What’s more is that Jefferson may be the only receiver in this league who truly has QB resistance. Top wide receivers like Adams and Chase have seen their numbers decline when playing with subpar or struggling quarterbacks — but not Jefferson. Last season, after Cousins tore his Achilles tendon, Jefferson went on to record 32 receptions for 503 yards and two touchdowns with a combination of Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall and Joshua Dobbs throwing the ball to him. That streak includes the Week 14 game when Jefferson left in the second quarter with a chest injury. He took out that game, averaging 119 yards per game without Cousins. It should come as no surprise that it worked with Darnold as well, as Jefferson is the rare mega-talent who can succeed with anyone. (And if there’s any question about why Darnold will return to a career in 2024, Jefferson is a big part of the answer.)
Remember how we were talking about Aaron Donald? At his best, Donald was not only the best defensive player in the league, but he was on a completely different level than all the players at his position. He was the ultimate X-factor, defying comparison to any other interior lineman. Jefferson should be viewed in a similar light. Because as far as Chase and Hill and Lamb and Wilson and whoever else you see at the top of the office, Jefferson is not one of those people. He’s the best player in the league, and he’s on his way to becoming one of the best players in history. Don’t take it for granted.
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