In-state action in the Big 12 begins in Week 6 when TCU (3-2, 1-1 Big 12) and Houston (1-4, 0-2 Big 12) square off under the lights on Friday night.
The Horned Frogs got their season back on track with a 38-27 win over Kansas last week.
Meanwhile, the Cougars are looking for their first conference win under their new coach after losses to Cincinnati and Iowa State.
TCU enters this game as a -16 favorite with an over/under of 51.
Who doesn’t like to start the week with some Texas football? Let’s dive into this contest and provide some Houston vs. TCU predictions and college football picks for Friday, October 4.
Houston Cougars vs TCU Horned Frogs prediction
My best bet between TCU and Houston is for Houston to cover the spread. I’m backing Houston at +16.5 and will play this at +14.5.
Houston pick vs. TCU: Houston +16.5
Houston vs TCU odds, spread, line
Friday 4 October
7:30 PM ET
espn
Houston OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline
+16.5
-110
50.5
-115° / -105°
+540
TCU OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline
-16.5
-110
50.5
-115° / -105°
-800
Houston vs. TCU Point Spread: Houston +16.5 · TCU -16.5 Houston vs. TCU Over/Under: 50.5 points Houston vs. TCU Moneyline: Houston ML +540 · TCU ML -800
Preview Houston Football vs TCU Football
Houston Cougars betting preview: Defense makes strides
After five years under coach Dana Holgorsen, Houston decided to go in a new direction by hiring veteran coach Willie Fritz, whose 31-year coaching career included successful stops at Tulane, Georgia Southern and Sam Houston State.
Unfortunately, it looks like this will be a complete rebuild in his first campaign. It also doesn’t help that the program makes the jump to the Big 12 this year.
Even with the slow start, Fritz has led significant improvements on the defensive side of the ball. Houston’s defense allowed just 1,471 yards, the third-fewest on the program, through the first five games of a season since 2000.
On the other side of the ball, Fritz began to see his running scheme pay off. The Cougars have run for 554 yards over their past three games, a sharp contrast to the first two games, where Houston rushed for a combined 96 yards.
The campaign has always been difficult, but I expect Fritz to change that if he gets the time.
TCU Horned Frogs betting preview: Hoover leads the way
Just two seasons ago, coach Sonny Dykes led the program to the national championship game. However, TCU’s 2022-23 team seems like a distant memory.
The Horned Frogs failed to make a bowl last year, losing four of their last five games. That led to a change on the defensive side of the ball, as Dykes brought in former Boise State coach Andy Avalos as defensive coordinator.
Unfortunately, the transition has not been smooth for Avalos. TCU gave up more than 500 total yards in a loss to UCF before allowing 66 points to SMU in the Iron Skillet battle.
On the plus side, the offense has been explosive behind the duo of quarterback Josh Hoover and receiver Jack Beck. Hoover ranks third in the FBS in passing yards (1,774) and is fourth in touchdown passes (14).
Bech has been the main beneficiary of the team’s brilliant passing. Coming into this game, he’s the only player in the FBS who ranks in the top three nationally in both receiving yards and touchdown catches, and he’ll need another big game here.
TCU vs Houston match analysis
Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show how TCU and Houston match up statistically:
Houston Offense vs. TCU Defense TCU Offense vs. Houston Defense Play Speed/Other Tackle PFF607PFF804 CoverageSpecial Teams SP+134122Avg.86345 seconds per game30.3 (125)24.4 (17)Rush Rate57% (56)43% (121)
How to Bet on Picking Houston vs. TCU
The big differences stand out when looking at the list for the sixth week. That means I’m looking to support some big underdogs, and this is one of those situations.
So, my best bet is to back Houston at +16.5, which I’ll reduce to +14.5. Keep waiting to see if +17 shows up later in the week for a key number.
Yes, I agree that on paper this sounds like a painful endeavor. However, there is an argument that the Cougars’ defense is the best unit on the field.
This is a defense that ranks in the top 50 in both pass success and finishing. Meanwhile, TCU is outside the top 80 in finishing drives, which can be huge when trying to cover such a large spread.
On offense, the key to Houston’s success will be running the football, chewing the clock, and keeping the Horned Frogs’ high-powered offense down the field. We’ve seen other teams do it against TCU.
UCF rushed for 289 yards in Week 3, which was followed a week later by SMU rolling up 238 yards on the ground against the Frogs.
I feel like this is too many points for TCU, and I hope the visitors can blow this game away and pick up a winning ticket.
Pick: Houston +16.5 (play to +14.5)
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How to watch Houston vs TCU
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas Date: Friday, October 4 Kickoff Time: 7:30 PM ETTV / Broadcast: ESPN
College football betting trends for Houston vs TCU
Houston is 1-4 in its last five games and 2-3 against the spread. The bottom has taken advantage all of Houston’s games. TCU is 3-2 straight up and 1-4 against the spread in their last five games. He has struck out in four of TCU’s last five games.
TCU vs Houston weather
About the author
Brett Bond is a writer for Action Network specializing in college football, soccer and college basketball. He started writing for Action in 2021 and has been betting since 2018. Before joining Action, he worked in sports media relations at the collegiate and professional levels, which is where his passion for writing grew.
Follow Brett Bond @bchinop on Twitter/X.
