Can you believe that just a week ago we didn’t know which teams the Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks would be eliminated from the playoffs? What a stormy week. We saw the D-backs eliminated and four others join them in the Wild Card Series loss. Monday brings us more entertainment in the form of ALDS Games 2.
As is usual in these parts, let’s take some gambling games.
LHP Tarik Skubal vs. LHP Matthew Boyd
There is an argument that Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball. He’s looked in that role all year and did so again in Houston in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series last week. He has an extra day of rest as well, thanks to the day off between Games 1 and 2 in this series. He was worse on the road this season than he was at home, but he still had a 2.86 ERA. He faced the Guardians once and allowed just one run in seven innings.
Boyd was excellent after being selected by The Guardian in late June. He made eight starts in the MLB, pitching to a 2.72 ERA. I wasn’t expecting him to work deep into the game, but the Rangers have the best team in baseball by a wide margin and only had five days off before the first game with a day off again before the second game. They can use their entire stable of study painkillers if they choose.
The Play: Tigers under 3.5 runs (-140)
I expect the Tigers offense to be shut down again. Maybe Boyd only works three or four innings and then the Tigers deal with the likes of Cade Smith, Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis and Emmanuel Clase with their batteries at 100%. Detroit doesn’t have enough collective strength to rely on a big homer and it will be very difficult to put together a group of singles against this pitching staff.
LHP Cole Ragans vs. LHP Karls Rodón
Ragans wasn’t eliminated at all in his first playoff game, dominating the Orioles for six innings. He’s been better on the road than at home this season, too. He once saw the Yankees give up two runs on three hits while walking three on seven hits in six innings.
Rodon has been hot down the stretch. He has posted a 2.20 ERA in his last five starts. His worst outing came against the Royals, despite allowing four runs (only two earned) on five hits in six innings. He has been a much better pitcher at home this season (3.11 ERA vs. 4.69 ERA on the road).
Play: Rodon over 15.5 points scored (+120)
I mentioned that Rodon is going well right now and hasn’t had fewer than 16 home runs (5 1/3 innings) in a start since August 17th. He made 12 appearances in the second half and only one of them lasted. 16 Generality. I realize that with all the days off, it might be tempting for Aaron Boone to pull Rodon after five good innings, but the Yankees manager is a bit old school in how to let starters get deeper into games than some of the newer school managers. I think Rodon shot well for five rounds, and if that were the case, he would almost certainly be knocked out in the sixth round.
I’ve got another one, too.
The Play: Juan Soto over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115)
I know it sounds stupid because he always looks so impressive, but I really liked how Soto looked at his at-bat in Game 1. He was 3-for-5 with a double. He’s in that comfortable second spot in the order — Aaron Judge will probably start batting in the playoffs — and by the time Ragans sees it, he’s hit a home run. That was less than a month ago.
