Right now, if you really know how to read polls, or if you have access to various private, internal polls that are conducted and only shared among elites, Wall Street, and members of Congress, then you already know that this election was more than weeks ago. Trump simply refused to believe that “Sleepy Joe” was no longer his opponent, and that there was instead a “woman” claiming to be “black” who was about to beat him up on Election Day. He quickly became agitated, talking for hours on end about Hannibal Lecter, Haitians who eat your pets, a drone of oral diarrhea spewing misogyny and racism, and basically claiming that if he lost “it would be the Jews’ fault.”
The vast majority of people in the country, ordinary people, have seen enough and want the clown car to disappear into the MAGA vortex somewhere between reality and Orlando. Kamala Harris’ fast, explosive momentum is unlike anything seen in decades. Which is why, perhaps at this point in my rant, I just need to say out loud what is being said to me in private by people I respect — and not just in a whisper, but in a spirited, enthusiastic tone: A new era is underway. Born, where Caucasian is just one option but no longer the bossy pants of the world. Where it’s okay if you’re missing the lower right quadrant of the second basic.
The total of major polls to date shows Harris will defeat Trump in the Electoral College vote count by 270 to 268.
But I think we need more. We need to make sure that Trump loses in a landslide, by such huge numbers that we haven’t seen it since the entire country tuned in to watch Geraldo open Al Capone’s vault. Because this is the only way to ensure his permanent removal from the public eye. We must accept nothing less.
As it stands now, here are the basic conclusions I’ve come to just from being around fellow Americans who shop at Costco, enjoy making TikToks, and eat once a week at Chili’s:
Harris will win six states west of the Rocky Mountains: Colorado, New Mexico, California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii.
Harris will also win six of the eight Great Lakes states: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York.*
Harris will win the District of Columbia and the 10 states in New England and the Atlantic from the Canadian border to Virginia, including Virginia, Maryland, D.C., Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine.
(Sorry, we’re out of clip art for “Know My States!”, you know what that looks like.)
In the two non-winner take all states, Maine and Nebraska, Trump would win one Maine voter and Harris would win one Nebraska voter.
So the crystal ball now brings the Harris-Trump score to…
Since losing the debate to Harris, Trump’s momentum has come to a screeching halt. Even as Vance “won” Tuesday night’s debate through his “charm,” “civility,” “politeness,” and the “diabolical” laser beams he “fired” from “his” “eyes” “into” “our” minds, This helps change someone’s mind. Harris continues to ride her rocket ship, never slowing down and increasing her popularity every day. Trump’s voting base is now deeply depressed, and more and more they’re feeling that sinking feeling because they realize there’s no way now that Trump or the Astros will win.
but…
You and I know that there are always ways to win. We don’t know what it is because we don’t have the number “666” written on our foreheads in invisible ink. We know that Trump has an excellent streak at achieving the impossible — and those who write him off have more than once lived to see the day when they have to eat humble pie. It’s not at all wise to do a victory dance on the two-yard line when Trump is your opponent.
So, each of us still has to do our work to get out the vote and, most importantly, make sure Harris has a Democratic House and Senate elected next month to pass her legislation next year.
I know many of you are still afraid that Trump will somehow win. So, knowing how worried a lot of you are about November 5th, let me break it down and show you how difficult it will be for him to win. Even if he picks a swing state or two, there will be more than one way to stop him.
Here are the three scenarios:
If Trump wins Michigan, Harris could overcome that by winning either Georgia or North Carolina. That’s all you’ll need. Or, if Harris can’t pull it off, she could still lose Michigan and become the new president by winning Arizona and Nevada. But there’s a small snag: When Biden and Harris won Michigan in 2020, they did so with a whopping 66% of the Arab and Muslim vote. 130,000 Arab and Muslim Michigan residents voted for Biden and Harris, more than double what Trump got. But opinion polls here in Michigan since last October have shown that the vast majority of Arab voters for Biden have decided not to vote for his ticket next November because of his financing and arming of Netanyahu’s massacre of the people in Gaza. By the summer, I thought President Biden was going to stop this. Unfortunately, that did not happen. To this day, Biden refuses to demand that those to whom we give our bombs and billions in Israel follow our laws and refrain from committing war crimes. What Biden did that might save the vote in Michigan was to stop running for president and, instead, hand the reins over to his running mate who was pushing for a ceasefire and compliance with our American values of human rights and not killing civilians. . Her personal criticism of Prime Minister Netanyahu was exactly what the majority of Americans wanted. The end of the war on Gaza. She supported protecting the lives of Israelites, but would not support the use of mass starvation as a weapon of war. I think she felt very strongly about this – so much so that when Netanyahu came to address a joint session of Congress, with a speech full of vitriol and an out-of-control condemnation of young Americans who were organizing mass protests across the United States. To stop the madness, she refused to attend his speech and therefore did not sit with him on stage. He was horrified, and the next day he went straight to Mar-a-Lago to console the American Pepe. There are those who understand the symbolism of what happened that week and, like me, have deep hope that American policy in dealing with Israel and Palestine will soon improve. One sign of this is from two new polls in Michigan showing that Harris’s chances may now have improved over Biden’s with the Arab American community. But not all the way. It’s still 18 points behind the vote they both received in Michigan in 2020. But hey, no big deal. Do we really need Michigan to win in November? Since World War II, the last Democrat to win the White House while losing Michigan was…nobody! (Well, except for the only president in history who was actually from Michigan – Gerald Ford). As Michelle Goldberg of the New York Times wrote, “If you lose Michigan, you lose the White House.”
So what can Biden do to help his running mate? Does he really feel comfortable telling Arabs and Muslims in Detroit and Flint to go to hell themselves? Mr. President, don’t worry about us! Heck, we’re used to it. Our 10,000 children who were brain damaged from drinking Flint’s poisoned water while a Democrat was in the White House – I’m sure these young people won’t hold a candle to anyone when they’re finally old enough to vote in the next election.**
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Harris must win either Georgia or North Carolina, as well as Nevada or Arizona.
If Trump wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, Harris could still beat him by winning Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada or Arizona.
Even if the worst-case scenario occurs with Trump winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris will go to the White House if she wins Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada.
My gut reaction is that there will be an uprising of women at the ballot box, giving Trump a historic defeat that Harris could win in a landslide:
Harris: 55%
Trump: 42%
Third party: 3%
Here are some helpful maps showing different potential outcomes based on Harris winning states that Biden won in 2020, states that Obama won in 2008 and 2012, and a map of all the states that both Biden and Obama won in those three elections:
So, final thoughts…
What could reverse this positive result for Kamala Harris?
Well, as I explained, Biden’s continued funding and arming of the Netanyahu regime has actually depressed Michigan’s votes. So those of us in Michigan are working hard to turn out new voters to make up for the loss. In 2016, 75,000 Michiganders who voted on Election Day went to the voting booth and voted for all offices on the ballot — except for president. They left the top line blank. I think they didn’t like the choices they were given. We’ll try to make sure people don’t leave this line blank.
There is also another mistake that could be made in these last four or five weeks, which is for wealthy donors to advise Harris to avoid the left and abandon her more progressive positions in favor of “moving to the center.” This also could reduce or reduce voting for Harris, especially among the base. I know a lot of you don’t want to hear this, but I’m just trying to warn you that the actions of partisan hacks and pundits have consequences. They had the candidate walking around Wisconsin yesterday with Liz Cheney to get the vote out. Thank you Liz Cheney for doing the right thing. But there are an estimated 1 million people in Wisconsin who did not vote in 2020. And we need them to turn out in droves on November 5th. This should be the heart and soul of the get out the vote campaign – in Wisconsin and every other state! 80 million Americans did not vote in 2020. As for non-voters, they are the second largest political “party” in the United States! All we need is just a few thousand of them to show up – just this once – to make a difference: lower taxes for all working people, make the rich pay their taxes, get the government off women’s bodies, and stop all wars. To make sure every American has a seat at the table and a piece of pie! This is not “partisanship” – this is our freedom, and this is our democracy! For God’s sake, let’s do this! We are all in the same boat!
If ever there was an election where the unexpected and crazy could happen, this is it. Don’t assume anything. Take zero for granted. Work to prevent the worst outcomes and prepare to make a potential Trump presidency a complete failure by spending these coming weeks helping to elect Democrats to the House and Senate, thus creating a blue wall that ensures Trump will be unable to do anything for the White House. The next four years.
Onwards!
— Mike
*I’m glad New Yorkers read that they are a Great Lakes state. Because they are. I want them to feel comfortable that they and Michigan are on the same lake (Erie). They have twice as many Great Lakes as Illinois. And that they need to stop calling me so late at night because they think Michigan is in the central time zone. I ❤️ New York.
**I’m not bitter. I wish I was just “bitter”. When it comes to what happened to Flint, I’m still angry.
Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images
** In the interest of having a comments section free of trolls and haters – and because if there’s one thing I know about crazy haters, they’d rather spend eternity in hell with Marjorie Taylor Greene than send me $5 if they were forced to be a paid subscriber – Comments Section Mine here in my Substack is limited to paid subscribers. But, don’t worry – anyone can send me their comments, opinions and ideas by writing to me at mike@michaelmoore.com. I read every single one of them, although obviously I can’t respond to all of them. The solution here is not optimal but it has worked and my comments section has become a great place to meet people who want to discuss the ideas and issues I raise here. There is debate and disagreement, but it is refreshing that it is done with respect and kindness, unencumbered by the stench of bigotry and QAnon madness.
