Justin Jefferson began the 2024 NFL season by ranking fifth in receiving yards, tied for first with four touchdowns and his 17.9 yards per catch ranked fifth. If there’s anything to take away from his start this season it’s that his receiving numbers are down compared to the way he started the previous three seasons.
We compared his numbers through four games in all five of his NFL seasons, and his 20 receptions so far this year are the lowest since his rookie campaign in 2020. His yardage is less than what he produced in 2022 and is well behind Hot start to last season. But there’s an easy reason for that.
season
The catch
yards
Landing
2024
20
358
4
2023
33
543
3
2022
28
393
2
2021
26
338
3
2020
16
348
1
One easy answer to Jefferson’s drop in receptions is that Sam Darnold has attempted just 106 passes through four games. Kirk Cousins ​​attempted 157 passes in the first four weeks of the 2023 season. Why the big difference? Because Minnesota is building a big lead while the 2023 Vikings have been playing from behind and throwing the ball too much.
If you do the math, Jefferson has caught 18.8% of Minnesota’s pass attempts this season. He caught 21% of Cousins’ pass attempts through four weeks last season, so the drop in receptions is clearly related to size and nothing else.
Arguably the best four starts of a season in Randy Moss’ time with the Vikings (1998 to 2005) were in 2003 and 2004. In 2003, Moss started the season with 24 catches for 434 yards and four touchdowns. In 2004, Moss broke out with 24 catches for 305 yards and seven touchdowns in four games to start the season.
When Moss set an NFL record with 23 receiving touchdowns in 2007 with Tom Brady and the Patriots, he started that year with 31 catches for 505 yards and seven touchdowns.
