The second of five straight days of college football continues on Wednesday, October 16, with two more Conference USA matchups.
First, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will be +2.5 underdogs on the road against the Sam Houston Bearcats in a potential preview of the CUSA Championship — and we happen to have a pick in the spread.
Then, to cap off the night, the Florida International Panthers head to El Paso to take on the UTEP Miners in a game that FIU enters as a -7 favorite.
Our college football writers have come up with Wednesday’s college football predictions for both games, so let’s get ready — and be sure to check back tomorrow for our Thursday night college football betting coverage.
Wednesday college football predictions
Prediction for Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston
Written by Thomas Schlarb
A potential preview of the USA Championship is on Wednesday night, as the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (4-2, 2-0 CUSA) travel to play Sam Houston (5-1, 2-0). The game is scheduled to kick off at 7pm EST on ESPN2.
The Bearkats and Hilltoppers meet in a tie for second place in the conference standings.
Both teams are winless against Power 4 programs, with Sam Houston losing their game against UCF, while Western Kentucky is losing to both Alabama and Boston College.
The visiting Hilltoppers had a short rest, having just defeated UTEP less than one week ago. Will that help the Bearkats in a game in which they went from an underdog to a slight favorite?
Sam Houston now sits as a -2.5 favorite with an age over/under at 56 years old.
Let’s take a look at my predictions for the Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston matchup and college football picks for Wednesday, October 16.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky got right back into the win column six days ago against UTEP, just a game removed from its heartbreaking loss at Boston College. The Hilltoppers were outscored 14-0 in the fourth quarter of that one-point loss to the Eagles.
The losing effort two weeks ago against Boston College shows the best of what the Hilltoppers can be. Their passing attack, led by quarterback Caden Veltkamp, ranks first in Conference USA with 278.8 passing yards per game and 13 total passing touchdowns.
Veltkamp has been one of the most accurate passers in the league, completing nearly 70% of his passes, but he has made some critical mistakes in the turnover department. Only one quarterback in Conference USA has more than Veltkamp’s five interceptions, and his second-half Boston College turnover directly led to 14 points for the Eagles.
While the Hilltopper offensive line did a good job of pass protection, that blocking didn’t carry over to the ground game, where they rank 86th and 78th in Rush Success and Line Yards, respectively.
Western Kentucky’s defense has been a mixed bag as well. The Hilltoppers held Boston College to a season-low 279 total yards of offense, but were also gouged out for 514 yards by a Middle Tennessee team that would finish near the bottom of the conference standings.
The Hilltoppers boast one of the worst secondaries in the country, ranking 126th in pass success allowed. Western Kentucky’s defense is allowing 8.5 yards per attempt, which ranks 121st in the FBS.
To say that Sam Houston’s second year of FBS play was much better than his first would be a massive understatement.
The Bearkats were one of the last teams to get their first win of the season in 2023, going 0-8 before finally beating Kennesaw State.
Fast forward to 2024, and the Bearkats are in the midst of a Conference USA title race with just one loss on the season.
One of the biggest reasons for Sam Houston’s rookie success this year is the development of a strong running game. The Bearkats rank 11th nationally with 228.8 yards rushing per game.
The ground success was a collaborative effort, with running backs Jay Ducker and DJ McKinney each contributing 348 yards, along with quarterback Hunter Watson’s team-leading 370 yards.
Watson completes less than 60% of his passes, but his dual-threat skill set is responsible for 11 touchdowns through the air and on the ground.
While Sam Houston has one of the top offenses in Conference USA, every point is needed with some drawbacks on defense. The Bearkats struggle the most stopping the run, as they rank 118th and 132nd in Rush Success and Line Yards, respectively.
If there is an area of ”strength,” it is Sam Houston’s pass defense, which will be important against a Western Kentucky team that prefers to move down the field through the air.
The Bearkats rank second in Conference USA in both interceptions (7) and passes defended (28).
Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Beck
I was a little surprised when this game opened with Sam Houston as a young house dog before he moved on to where he is now.
Western Kentucky will struggle to contain Watson and an offense that has scored at least 21 points against every Group of Five team it has played.
The Bearkats have one of the best pass rushers in Conference USA, and with the Hilltoppers looking to win this game with Veltkamp’s arm, they will face a lot of pressure to consistently succeed.
Now jump on the Bearkat bandwagon as Sam Houston has a real chance to go from one of the worst to first in the conference standings.
Pick: Sam Houston -2.5 (play to -3)
FIU vs. UTEP prediction
Written by Brett Bond
The FIU Panthers (2-4, 1-1 in Conference USA) and the UTEP Miners (0-6, 0-3) meet in the Sun Bowl on Wednesday night for more midweek action in Conference USA. The game is scheduled to kick off at 9pm EST on CBS Sports Network.
The Panthers suffered a heartbreaking loss at Liberty last week in overtime to fall to 2-4 on the season and 1-1 in the USA.
Meanwhile, the Miners are going through a complete rebuilding season under a new coach and are still searching for their first win in six games.
FIU enters the game as a -7 favorite with an over/under of 48.
This may not be the best matchup on paper, but I see the value of betting strongly on the road favorite. So, let’s preview this conference and make some FIU vs. UTEP predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, October 16th.
In his third season with the program, FIU coach Mike McIntyre has been known for rebuilding losing programs, and he nearly pulled off a memorable win last week.
FIU erased a 14-point deficit with 10:43 remaining in regulation to force overtime on Liberty. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they were unable to match the Flames’ score in the extra period.
After a win over Louisiana Tech the week before, FIU could have been in the driver’s seat for a conference title game appearance and a bowl trip. Regardless, it shows the potential this team has under McIntyre.
Linebacker Travion Barnes played a key role in that game against Liberty. He tied a career-high with 16 tackles for loss, which has been the norm for him this season. Entering this contest, Barnes ranks second in the FBS with 70 total tackles.
He also led a defensive unit that gave up just 17 points in the second half against Louisiana Tech and Liberty.
With inconsistent play on offense, Barnes and the defense will need another big performance here to win.
Head coach Scotty Walden decided this offseason to make the jump to the FBS level after years of success in Austin Peay. Even with the key players he brought in, it was a tough first season in El Paso.
It also didn’t help that the Miners faced the tougher teams in Conference USA at the beginning of his tenure. UTEP had Liberty, Sam Houston and Western Kentucky to open league play to go along with a non-conference matchup at Nebraska to start the season.
Wednesday night begins a period where the opponent level will drop, and I expect the Miners to grab someone on their schedule.
Offensively, the team also started making plays. Ezell Jolly ran for 119 yards at WKU, and Kenny Odom ranks second in CUSA in yards per catch (22.9) and tied for first in receptions (four).
Walden needs time to turn this program around, but he has shown during his time at Austin Peay that he can deliver results.
As much as I’d like UTEP to fade away here, I can’t get over how bad it is for FIU. The Panthers just suffered an overtime loss to the defending champion CUSA, and now have to travel across two time zones from Miami to El Paso.
So, I choose to take another path to weaken the miners, which is to oppose their troubling crime.
However, my best bet is for UTEP to fall within its team total of 21.5 on FanDuel, which I would reduce to 20.5.
The key matchup on both sides of the ball will be the passing game as both teams are outside the top 70 teams in rushing average. This is where there is a clear advantage for visitors.
On offense, the Miners come into this game ranked outside the top 110 in both pass success rate and finish drives. It also doesn’t help that starting quarterback Cade McConnell left the game against WKU with an injury and is questionable for this injury.
Regardless of who started under center, FIU was solid in defending the pass. The Panthers’ defense ranks 21st nationally in pass success allowed and 16th in PFF coverage grade.
This is also the same unit that ranks in the top 10 among non-Power 4 programs in the Pass EPA.
UTEP has surpassed that mark in just one game this season, which came in a loss to FCS Southern Utah.
I think the struggles continue here with a backup quarterback, so I’ll be backing the Panthers to stay hot on defense.
Select: UTEP Team Overall Under 21.5 (Play to 20.5)
