Kamala Harris could win in a landslide if polls underestimate Democrats the same way they do in 2022, according to CNN polling analyst Harry Enten.
According to Enten, polls on average underestimated Democrats by 4 points in the midterm elections, which saw Democrats win 51 seats in the Senate while Republicans took control of the House of Representatives.
If polls underestimate Democrats again this year, Harris could win 319 electoral votes to Trump’s 219, meaning she would win all the battleground states and win the presidency, Enten’s analysis showed.
Enten also noted that polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016, when he won 30 states, and in 2020, when he won 25 states. According to the analysis, the best Republican polls were an average of 8 points better than in 2020 in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, this year, with Trump trailing Harris by one point, his best polls show him three points higher than his polling average in the three Great Lakes states. But according to Enten, the polls are unlikely to underestimate Trump again this year, as no party has been underestimated in the polls in swing states for three consecutive presidential election cycles since at least 1972.
In fact, according to Enten, the polls for Trump in swing states may be “very good,” and may actually be underestimating Harris.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on October 28, 2024. Harris could win a large majority if polls underestimate her, according to an election analyst. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on October 28, 2024. Harris could win a large majority if polls underestimate her, according to an election analyst. Carlos Osorio/AP
“This is the final result,” he said. “I think a lot of people think the polls are going to underestimate Donald Trump, but when I look at the evidence, I think there are people who are underestimating the idea that maybe Kamala Harris will be underestimated by the polls, at least one week.”
Newsweek contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
Opinion polls currently indicate that Harris is winning the popular vote, while Trump is on track to win the Electoral College. For example, pollster Nate Silver’s projections show Harris leading by 0.9 points, with a 71% chance of winning the popular vote. However, given Trump’s position in swing states, his projections show Harris has a 44% chance of winning the Electoral College, versus her opponent’s 55% chance.
Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight showed Harris leading by 1.4 points nationally, but giving Trump a 52% chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 48% chance.
Both compilations show Trump leading in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows Harris with a 0.1 point lead in Nevada, while Silver’s forecast shows the two candidates tied.
In 2020, opinion polls showed President Joe Biden with a strong lead over then-President Trump. Just before the election, Biden led by 8.4 points in the FiveThirtyEight average and 7.2 points in the RealClearPolitics average. However, he won the popular vote by less than 4.5 points, just enough to win the Electoral College.
The American Association for Public Opinion Research described the poll failure in 2020 as the largest in 40 years, with polls overestimating Biden’s advantage in recent weeks.
Likewise, in 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning, but she ultimately lost the Electoral College despite winning the popular vote.
Scott Keeter, a senior fellow at the Pew Research Center, told Newsweek this week that polls in 2020 and 2016 were inaccurate because Trump supporters chose not to participate in polls due to a lack of trust in institutions like the mainstream media and polling organizations.
“Trump supporters may have less trust in the institutions that sponsor these polls,” Keeter said. “If they choose not to participate because of that mistrust, their support will not be accurately recorded.”
However, while polls have historically tended to underestimate Trump’s support, pollsters have adapted their methods in response to past mistakes, increasingly using online polls and text messages.
Voting methods have changed dramatically since 2016, when many surveys still relied on landlines, even though less than half of American households have them. By 2022, 61% of US polling organizations that conducted national surveys in 2016 had transitioned to the updated methods.
Experts also believe polls will be more accurate this year, as adjustments now better account for potential Trump supporters who were previously underrepresented.
“Many pollsters today use past voting [history] To correct Trump’s low numbers, Cliff Young, head of Ipsos polling, told Newsweek earlier.
