LAS VEGAS, NV – APRIL 13: Bo Nickal faces Cody Brundage in their middleweight title fight at T-Mobile… [+] The arena on April 13, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
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The next pay-per-view on the UFC’s schedule is almost here. That fight card, UFC 309, will take place on Saturday, November 16. The PPV event is headlined by a match between current UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones and former two-time UFC heavyweight titleholder Stipe Miocic. The co-main event of the evening is a rematch between former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira and three-time Bellator champion Michael Chandler. Before these two bouts take place, UFC middleweight contender Bo Nickal looks to continue his rise in the rankings against veteran UFC contender Paul Craig.
UFC 309 will take place at Madison Square Garden in New York City on November 16. The PPV card airs on ESPN+ after prelims on ESPNews and early prelims on ESPN+
UFC 309 Preview: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
Bo Nickal (6-0) has earned a UFC contract after one fight on Jorge Masvidal’s iKON FC card and two appearances on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022. Nickal is 3-0 under the UFC banner with three wins by stoppage. He has never gone past the second round in any of his professional bouts, and prior to his UFC 300 bout against Cody Brundage, he had never gone past the 2:54 mark of the first round. He stopped Nickal Brundage via rear-naked choke at 3:38 of the second round.
Nickal has been a huge favorite with the bookies ahead of each of his UFC bouts. In his first promotional appearance, Nickal was a -2,500 favorite over Jimmy Pickett. His next fight, against late replacement Val Woodburn, Nickal came in at -2200. Against Brundage, Nickall was the betting favorite until 1800.
Nikal’s background is wrestling. He was a three-time NCAA Division I national champion and three-time Big Ten Conference champion for head coach Kyle Sanderson and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Nickal finished second in the 2016 NCAA Finals, losing to Ohio State’s Myles Martin. Nickal beat Martin in the 2018 finals. He compiled a career record of 131-5 with Penn State, going 61-0 in his last two years.
Paul Craig (17-8-1) has been with the UFC since 2016. Things haven’t gone well for Craig the past two years. He was 1-4 during that time, with TKO wins over Andre Muniz and losses to Volkan Oezdemir, Johnny Walker, Brendan Allen, and Caio Borallio. His last fight was a knockout loss to Boralho in May.
Craig is an accomplished wrestler, who never quits. He’s a tough guy for anyone to handle and poses a threat at any point in a fight. Craig is the only fighter to have beaten highly-rated Magomed Ankalaev, submitting him literally in the last second of their 2018 bout. Ankalaev is the No. 1 fighter in the official UFC light heavyweight rankings and is expected to be the next opponent for the division’s champion, Alex Pereira.
Craig has never lost three fights in a row. They rebounded from losing streaks in their previous two matches with late victories.
LAS VEGAS, NV – NOVEMBER 18: Paul Craig of Scotland prepares to face Brendan Allen in… [+] Middleweight fights during a UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on November 18, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zova LLC via Getty Images)
Zuffa LLC via Getty Images UFC 309: Bo Nickal over Paul Craig
“I think a lot of people know Paul Craig, he’s had some really big wins in his career and he’s a dangerous opponent,” Nickal said. “I’ve finished guys who have gone on to become champions and fight for the belt, so this is definitely the most dangerous fight I’ve had to this point and it’s a huge step forward. But I feel prepared and ready to continue building my reputation.”
“For me, this is just another puzzle to solve. It’s another challenge to face,” Nikal added. “I’m looking forward to continuing to develop my skills overall and getting better and better as a fighter. This is a different challenge than I’ve had in the past and it makes it a lot more fun for me. Fighting, it’s a little bit physical, but it’s mostly mental, so I’m just looking forward to going out there and showing my mentality and fighting IQ,” Just as I continue to dominate opponents and control every second.
UFC 309: Paul Craig over Bo Nickal
“Right now I have an unbeaten prospect in Bo Nickal who is standing in front of me. These are the fights I’m excited about,” Craig said. “Movies where I’m the underdog and everyone says ‘Paul Craig is going to lose.’ That’s when I produce my best work.
“Bo Nickal is a tough opponent, but he’s never faced someone as experienced as me,” Craig added. “When you look at Bowe’s record in mixed martial arts, it’s a pretty nice record, but he’s not as experienced and he hasn’t faced the same level of competition that I have. Not only that, he hasn’t been in the octagon very long. You think about 6-0 and you think about the actual time that He’s in there, you get 15 minutes and he does it in two or three minutes I’ve been there, blood, sweet, tears I’ve been able to take myself into the deep water and survive, and here we’ll find out if he can do it Go to Deep water survival?
UFC 309 Betting Odds: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
When the UFC first announced this contest, the betting line had Bo Nickal as the -910 favorite over Paul Craig’s +600. The betting line has changed since then. Today, Nickal is a -1667 favorite over Craig, who comes in as a +560 underdog.
LAS VEGAS, NV – APRIL 13: Bo Nickal raised his hand in a lightweight fight during the UFC… [+] 300 event at T-Mobile Arena on April 13, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zova LLC via Getty Images)
Zuffa LLC via Getty Images UFC 309 Predictions and Picks: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
The easy choice is for Bo Nickal to win, but that choice is worthless given the current betting odds. Craig is a crafty wrestler, but his jab is more than serviceable. I expect Nickal’s takedown game and Craig’s willingness to tangle on the mat will keep both fighters on the ground for much of this fight, and this is where Nickal will use ground strikes to finish the TKO.
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