NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 14: Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic appeared on stage during the UFC 309 press conference… [+] Convention at the theater at Madison Square Garden on November 14, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zova LLC)
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Tomorrow’s UFC 309 fight card features a heavyweight title fight as the main event. In that bout, UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones looks to defend his title for the first time. His opponent Saturday night at Madison Square Garden is former UFC heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic.
The UFC 309 PPV fight card airs on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPNews and early prelims on ESPN+.
In the co-main event of the evening, former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira faces Michael Chandler in a rematch of their 2021 meeting. Oliveira won that contest via TKO in the second round to capture the vacant UFC 155-pound title.
Also on the UFC 309 PPV fight card is a middleweight bout between rookie Bo Nickal and UFC veteran Paul Craig.
Below, we take a look at the betting odds, line movement, potential prop bets, fight picks, predictions, and more for tomorrow night’s UFC 309 fight card.
UFC 309 main event: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 14: Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic face off during the UFC 309 press conference… [+] Convention at the theater at Madison Square Garden on November 14, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zova LLC)
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When the betting lines for UFC 309 were first announced by BetMGM, Jon Jones was a -650 favorite over Stipe Miocic, who came in at +475. Jones remains steady at -650, while the former champion is a +450 betting favorite heading into fight night.
With the odds being one-sided, Miocic is a good value bet. As such, 83% of UFC 309 main event bets came on the former champion, while 58% of bets were on Miocic as well.
The betting option in this fight is for Jones to win by decision, but don’t be shy about going where there’s a lot of value, which is Miocic by knockout.
Co-main event of UFC 309: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler 2
NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 14: Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler face off at UFC 309… [+] A press conference at the Theater at Madison Square Garden on November 14, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zova LLC)
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The opening odds for the lightweight co-main event saw Oliveira at -250 and Chandler at +200. There has been a slight movement in this betting line. Today, the former UFC champion is -275, while Chandler is listed at +210.
Oliveira had 79 percent of the bets and 58 percent of the money heading into Saturday night.
The betting choice for the UFC 309 co-main event is for Oliveira to win via submission.
UFC 309: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 14: Bo Nickal and Paul Craig face off during the UFC 309 press conference… [+] Convention at the theater at Madison Square Garden on November 14, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zova LLC)
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As has been the case with all of his fights in the UFC, Bo Nickal opened as the wide betting favorite, coming in at -1000 compared to Paul Craig’s +650. Nickal became a bigger favorite. Today, the former Penn State wrestler is listed at -1400 over Craig, an underdog in the +800 betting.
Craig took 84% of the bets before this matchup, while Nickal took 58% of the bets.
The betting choice is for Nikal to win by knockout.
UFC 309: Vivian Araujo vs. Karen Silva
NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 15: Karen Silva of Brazil stands on the scales during UFC 309… [+] The official weigh-in takes place at the New York Hilton Midtown on November 15, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zova LLC)
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The bout between Vivian Araujo and Karen Silva is an important bout in the UFC women’s flyweight division. When the betting lines were first published for this contest, Araujo was a +225 underdog to -275 Silva. Today, Silva is listed at -300 and Araujo at +240.
Araujo, who has been with the UFC longer, has 65 percent of the bets and 66 percent of the money resting on her.
The betting choice is for Silva to win via decision.
UFC 309: Mauricio Roffey vs. James Launtop
NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 15: Mauricio Rovi of Brazil stands on the scales during UFC 309… [+] The official weigh-in takes place at the New York Hilton Midtown on November 15, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zova LLC)
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This bantamweight fight was a late addition to the UFC 309 fight card. The bout came together after Charlie Campbell pulled out of his scheduled bout against Mauricio Roffey. James Lonetop agreed to fight in late October.
Ruffy was the betting favorite at -750 when the fight was first announced. Today it is listed at -900. Llontop opened at +525. It is now at +600.
Llontop has 70 of the bets on him, however, Ruffy has 96 percent of the handle.
The betting choice is for Roffie to win by knockout.
UFC 309 Most Backed Bets
According to BetMGM, here are the most supportive bets for the UFC 309 fight card:
Step Music by KO/TKO or DQ +700
Jon Jones by KO/TKO or DQ +100
Jon Jones by submission +200
Paul Craig via Submission +1000
Jon Jones in the second round +400
UFC 309 Most Betting Fights
According to BetMGM, here are the most bet on fights on the UFC 309 card.
Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
Oban Elliott vs. Basil Hafez
Chris Weidman vs. Eric Anders
UFC 309 fight card preview
NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 14: Jon Jones looks on during the UFC 309 press conference in… [+] Theater at Madison Square Garden on November 14, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zova LLC)
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Jon Jones (27-1-0-1) captured the vacant UFC heavyweight crown in March 2023 with a first-round victory over Cyril Jean. The UFC heavyweight title was left vacant when Francis Ngannou left the promotion as a free agent to sign with the PFL in early 2023.
The UFC initially booked Jones vs. Miocic for UFC 295. UFC CEO Dana White announced that fight in July 2023, saying at the time: “This is the fight Jon Jones wanted. It’s the fight Stipe wanted. “It’s a legacy fight for both of these guys.”
Jones vs. Miocic’s fight collapsed when Jones tore his pectoral muscle in training. With Jones ruled out of the card, the UFC opted to book an interim title fight between Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovic. Aspinall won that bout and the interim title by knockout in 69 seconds.
Miocic (20-4) has not stepped into the octagon since losing the title to Ngannou by knockout in March 2021.
NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 14: Charles Oliveira speaks during the UFC 309 press conference in… [+] Theater at Madison Square Garden on November 14, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zova LLC)
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Charles Oliveira (34-10-0-1) has been fighting with the UFC since 2010. He won the vacant lightweight title by defeating Chandler and defended the title once by defeating Dustin Poirier. He was booked to face Justin Gaethje in his second title defense, but Oliveira missed weight in that fight, which he won by submission, losing the title on the scales.
Oliveira had the opportunity to regain the belt in October 2022, but Islam Makhachev gave it up and obtained the vacant belt. Since that loss, Oliveira has gone 1-1 over Benel Dariush by TKO in June 2023 and lost to Arman Tsarukyan by split decision in April of this year.
Oliveira is the No. 2 fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings.
Michael Chandler (23-8) was waiting for the match with Conor McGregor. After a long delay, that fight has been booked for UFC 303 in June. However, a broken toe during training camp prevented McGregor from competing.
Chandler last fought in November 2022 when he lost to former interim UFC lightweight champion Dustin Poirier. Chandler signed with the UFC as a free agent in 2020. He made his UCLA debut in January 2021 with a knockout win over Dan Hooker.
Oliveira and Chandler met in the main event of UFC 262 in May 2021. Oliveira won that contest via second-round TKO, capturing the vacant UFC 155-pound title in the process.
NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 14: Bo Nickal appears during the UFC 309 press conference in… [+] Theater at Madison Square Garden on November 14, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zova LLC)
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Bo Nickal (6-0), who earned a UFC contract after one fight on Jorge Masvidal’s iKON FC card and two appearances on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022, is 3-0 in the UFC with three wins by submission. Nickal has never made it past the second round in any of his professional bouts, and prior to his UFC 300 bout against Cody Brundage, he had never gone past the 2:54 mark of the first round.
Paul Craig (17-8-1) has been with the UFC since 2016. Things haven’t gone well for Craig the past two years. He was 1-4 during that time, with TKO wins over Andre Muniz and losses to Volkan Oezdemir, Johnny Walker, Brendan Allen, and Caio Borallio. His last fight was a knockout loss to Boralho in May.
Nickal has been one of the monster betting favorites in all of his bouts in the UFC. In his first promotional appearance, Nickal was a -2,500 favorite over Jimmy Pickett. His next fight, against late replacement Val Woodburn, Nickal came in at -2200. In Nickal’s last appearance, he was the favorite on Brundage -1800.
Nickal was a three-time NCAA Division I national champion and three-time Big Ten Conference champion for head coach Kyle Sanderson and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Nickal finished second in the 2016 NCAA Finals, losing to Ohio State’s Myles Martin. Nickal defeated Martin in the 2018 finals. Nickal had a career record of 131-5 with Penn State. He went 61-0 in his last two years.
UFC 309 will take place at Madison Square Garden on November 16.
