Kevin Seifert, ESPN Staff Writer Oct 10, 2024, 6:00am ET
CloseKevin Seifert is a staff writer covering the Minnesota Vikings and the NFL for ESPN. Kevin has covered the NFL for more than 20 years, joining ESPN in 2008. He was previously a featured reporter for the Minneapolis Star Tribune and The Washington Times. He is a graduate of the University of Virginia. You can follow him on Twitter @SeifertESPN.
EAGAN, Minn. — In an alternate universe, the Minnesota Vikings are spending their bye week determining whether the timing is right to promote rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy to the starting role. Here in the real world, of course, No. 10 is on injured reserve and the Vikings’ quarterback — Sam Darnold — has gotten some MVP support early.
Darnold and the Vikings are the NFL’s biggest surprise this season, and one of the most unexpected stories in recent memory. Externalized after McCarthy’s preseason knee injury, the Vikings are 5-0 and approaching ESPN’s FPI projection for their season win total (6.8). Darnold has played the best football of his seven-year career, rookie Will Richard has been perfect, and the Vikings not only have the best defense in the league, they have produced one of the top five games in modern NFL history.
It all came against the sixth-toughest schedule in the NFL, according to FPI, and yet the Vikings were so completely dominated that they trailed just 3 minutes and 26 seconds into the game. That’s the fifth-lowest total through five games in the Super Bowl era. All five of these teams advanced to the Super Bowl that season. Three of them won the championship.
The Vikings have trailed for 3 minutes, 26 seconds this season. According to ESPN research, that puts them at the top of the company. Only 4 teams since the 1970 merger have trailed less in Games 1-5. Everyone went to the Super Bowl, as did the team with the next best mark. details: pic.twitter.com/QGoH8vUc9i
– Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) October 7, 2024
As the team devotes its bye week to fine-tuning, refining and enhancing its starting lineup — rather than pondering McCarthy’s immediate future — here are five unexpected developments that have added up to one big upset.
Sam Darnold’s poise
History is worth repeating with Darnold, who signed a one-year, $10 million contract in March to serve as McCarthy’s placeholder. He has the lowest overall quarterback rating (42) of the 26 NFL quarterbacks who started at least 50 games between 2018 and 2023.
Given that backdrop, it’s exciting to see Darnold in the top half of the 2024 NFL QBR rankings (No. 14, 58.2) — even after his worst game of the season in the Vikings’ 23-17 win over the New York Jets on Sunday. Darnold is tied for second with 11 touchdown passes and used his big arm to push the ball down the field more often to rank No. 6 in air yards per attempt (8.8).
He was far from perfect, as he led the NFL with five fumbles (two lost) and committed six total turnovers, tied for third in the league. But his biggest contribution was his poise during key fourth-quarter moments that decided three close games, a clear sign of progress from a player who had a reputation early in his career for being shaky.
For example, in Week 2 against the San Francisco 49ers, Darnold identified a 28-yard back shoulder pass to receiver Jalen Naylor to convert a third down that ultimately led to a crucial field goal. In Week 4 against the Green Bay Packers, he threw passes of 27 and 17 yards to receiver Justin Jefferson during another drive that helped seal a 31-29 win. And against the Jets, Darnold found Jefferson for 25 yards and tight end Johnny Mundt for another 20 yards on a drive that created a slim lead.
“That’s just who Sam was, he dealt with adversity when his team needed him and he did it,” coach Kevin O’Connell said. [making] Some games there gave us a better chance to win.”
Cornerback Stephon Gilmore is one of several free agent additions that has pushed the Vikings defense to another level this season. AP Photo/Kirsty WigglesworthDefense is a historically good start
It was reasonable to expect strong defensive play from the Vikings, who added four notable free agents — linebackers Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman, along with cornerback Stephon Gilmore — to a core that had already spent a season with defensive coordinator Brian Flores. But their defensive DVOA of 37.1% — a metric that compares success per game to the league average based on downs and distance with adjustments for positions and opponents — is more than double what the second-best, sixth-best team achieves. For any defense in five games since 1979.
where #Vikings Ranks among the top defenses as measured by DVOA through 5 games. #School pic.twitter.com/K9FQYE6cbg
– Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) October 7, 2024
Dominance spread in all areas. The Vikings forced 13 turnovers, second-best in the NFL, including two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns by Van Ginkel. They rank second in sacks (20) and yards allowed per rush (3.6), and fourth in points allowed (15.2).
Van Ginkel and Gilmore previously played for Flores, and that helped the Vikings open the season without many growing pains. A signature part of Flores’ scheme is to create confusion before the snap, and as ESPN’s Bill Barnwell noted, the Vikings had at least one defender away from the line of scrimmage on the snap 48.5% of the time — by far the highest rate in the league. Through five weeks of the 2023 season, Flores’ first in Minnesota, that rate stood at 39.3%, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Flores’ scheme so completely confounded his opponents that he was able to lead the NFL in blitz rate on first and second downs (46.7%) and then drop it to third (28.1%, No. 19) with great success. In those key third downs, Flores will often use three or four strikers to create his defensive line. For example, backup linebacker Jehad Ward has lined up as an interior lineman on 85 snaps this season.
And here’s a warning for future opponents: Speaking earlier this week, O’Connell hinted that Flores hasn’t finalized his playbook yet.
“What I’m most excited about is I think there’s a lot more as we continue to move throughout this season and face the type of challenges that we’re going to have on our schedule,” O’Connell said. “That’s where I’m really going to look for continued improvement, continued comfort from our players within the scheme, and for Flo and his staff to do that at such a high level was huge for our organization.”
A highly productive free agent class
Teams that use free agency to make up for unproductive drafts like the 2024 Vikings are rarely rewarded. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has signed 12 major unrestricted free agents, not counting the current players he has re-signed, almost all of whom have found ways to contribute to the 5-0 start.
At the top of the list are Darnold and running back Aaron Jones, who ranks seventh in the NFL with 517 yards from scrimmage but could miss some time after the bye with a right hip injury. Greenard has four sacks, Van Ginkel has three to go along with his interceptions, and Cashman leads the team in tackles (40). Gilmore’s interception of Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers sealed the victory, linebacker Camus Grugier-Hill recorded two interceptions while filling in for injured player Evan Pace Jr., and Ward made a key fumble recovery against the 49ers.
Cornerback Shaquill Griffin’s interception in Week 4 against the Packers led to a Vikings touchdown, and defensive lineman Jerry Tillery dropped two passes while starting all five games.
It’s hard to imagine where the Vikings would be without this strong class because they are starting with just three players drafted during Adofo-Mensah’s three-year tenure: guard Ed Ingram, receiver Jordan Addison, and receiver Jalen Naylor. According to ESPN Research, that is the lowest total in the NFL during that period.
Vikings tight end TJ Hockenson practiced last week as he nears his return from a season-ending knee injury he suffered late last year. Photos by Kirby Lee Imagine
There has been plenty of reason to be concerned about the tight end’s ongoing recovery from the torn ACL and torn ACL in his right knee that he suffered on Dec. 24. He’s been pivotal to the Vikings’ offense since arriving midway through the 2022 season, after which the Vikings have scored tighter tight ends than any team in the NFL except the Kansas City Chiefs, who have Travis Kelce.
With Hockenson set to spend the first part of the 2024 season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, O’Connell has reorganized his offense. Mondt and fellow reserve Josh Oliver both caught a touchdown pass from Darnold, but overall, the Vikings have the third-fewest tight end targets in the NFL (18).
Among other things, the Vikings made up for those goals by calling 31% more running backs (118) through five games than last season during the same time period (82). So, even with Hockenson out, their offense ranks No. 8 in the NFL in scoring (25.0 PPG) and No. 10 in offensive efficiency (56.2). Each is the best mark through five games during O’Connell’s tenure.
Hockenson is scheduled to return no later than Week 9 against the Indianapolis Colts, and it’s fair to expect another realignment at that point.
“I’ve been very excited about the possibility of having TJ back in our offense, and that’s going to be something that I think should be a real positive for us,” O’Connell said.
Perfect Will Richard
Richard has proven to be an exception to the long history of rookie football players in the NFL. A sixth-round draft pick this spring, Richard converted all nine of his field goal attempts, including three from 50-plus yards, and each of his 16 extra points.
According to Pro Football Reference, this makes him one of three rookies in NFL history who have maintained a perfect conversion rate while appearing in at least five games.
The Vikings have a lot to learn here about their young player, especially in potentially foul-weather games during Week 12 at Soldier Field in Chicago and Week 16 at Lumen Field in Seattle. But to this point, Richard has far exceeded historical expectations for players in his position.
