Brett Okamoto, ESPN Staff Writer Nov 12, 2024, 7:55am ET
CloseMMA Columnist for ESPN.com Analyst for “MMA Live” covers MMA for the Las Vegas Sun
Believe it or not, Michael Chandler might still be waiting for Conor McGregor if not for Charles Oliveira’s appeal.
Chandler (23-8) is scheduled to return from a two-year absence on Saturday, when he faces Oliveira (34-10) in the co-main event of UFC 309 at Madison Square Garden. The leave was essentially self-imposed, as Chandler had spent the past 24 months promoting and preparing for a lucrative bout against McGregor that never materialized — a decision that left him vulnerable, as he put it, to some severe “public shaming” online. .
However, Chandler was still open to the idea of waiting until 2025 – until the UFC offered him a chance to fight Oliveira, who he defeated in 2021, for the lightweight title.
“If the UFC had not offered me Oliveira in the No. 1 contender fight, it would have been a tough decision,” Chandler told ESPN after his move from McGregor. “But once they offered me it, it was an easy decision. I want to fight Conor, I waited to fight Conor, I deserved to fight Conor and I got it, but at some point, you say, ‘Okay, Oliveira is a great choice.'”
UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones puts his title on the line against Stipe Miocic in the main event, while Charles Oliveira takes on Michael Chandler in the co-main event.
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Chandler’s willingness to wait for McGregor is part and parcel of his belief that the 36-year-old star will eventually fight again. McGregor has not fought since breaking his leg in a TKO loss to Dustin Poirier in 2021. He was scheduled to face Chandler at UFC 303 in June, but pulled out due to a foot injury. McGregor has consistently stated that he would fight again, but the MMA community is starting to doubt him.
To get a sense of what Chandler is or isn’t moving on from, ESPN asked the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas to put together a hypothetical betting line on McGregor’s return to the Octagon in 2025. Racing and Sports Director John Murray put up a line of 3-1 against McGregor fighting again.
“I strongly believe it doesn’t make sense for him to fight again,” Murray told ESPN. “He has a lot of money, and other streams of revenue are coming in. He’s a family man. The last time he fought, he was seriously injured. He’ll be 37 next year. Why would he put himself through another training camp where he’ll never be able to win the belt again What will he fight for?
Conor McGregor and Michael Chandler were opposing coaches on “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2023. Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Chandler, who trained against McGregor in 2023’s The Ultimate Fighter, admits he’s biased but still believes McGregor isn’t finished yet.
“I think he’s fighting back above 50 percent,” Chandler said. “Maybe I’m just different, but when I finally say I’m retired, I’ll never come back. Conor never did that. He was always teasing me to come back. I don’t think he wants his legacy to be that he broke his leg, teased everyone about coming back and then pulled out Against Michael Chandler, I don’t think he wants this to be the end of him.”
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If Chandler turns out to be right — and McGregor fights in 2025 — it means Chandler will likely be taking a huge risk by facing Oliveira on Saturday. If he loses for the fourth time in his past five fights, the landscape of a potential McGregor fight could change, and not only will he have to wait two years for nothing, he may end up waiting two years just to see a McGregor fight. Someone else when he finally returns.
“You 100 percent jeopardized that fight and almost increased the odds that it would never happen by accepting this,” Chandler said. “I’ve given it up now, only to see it come back later. That’s good. I’m betting on myself.”
Chandler and Las Vegas agree on this point, although he believes that he will defeat Oliveira and face McGregor in the first quarter of next year before moving on to the title. ESPN asked Westgate Superbook to rank the odds against McGregor’s most likely opponent if he returns in 2025, and Chandler came in as the seventh most likely.
McGregor’s most likely opponent if he returns in 2025 is Jorge Masvidal, +225
Outside of McGregor, Masvidal is one of the biggest stars the sport has produced in the past 10 years. Masvidal, 39, retired in 2023 following a four-fight skid, but has since announced he is planning a UFC return. Masvidal fights at 170 pounds, which is the most likely weight class McGregor will return to. This would be one of the most profitable options for McGregor’s return.
Charles Oliveira, +250
McGregor targeted Oliveira extensively online when he held the lightweight championship between 2021 and 2022. Oliveira’s stock rose significantly during his time in the tournament, and McGregor had previously expressed his interest in fighting in Brazil, Oliveira’s home country. “Conor doesn’t want to fight Oliveira,” Chandler suggested. “The fight between me and Conor is more interesting for him than the fight against Oliveira.”
Max Holloway, +350
McGregor has had a win over Holloway since 2013, when both were working their way up the featherweight ranks. Holloway has become a household name in the UFC and still holds on to the BMF belt despite failing to face Ilya Topuria for the featherweight title last month. McGregor would have a size advantage over Holloway, and who knows how much the BMF belt might appeal to him at this point.
Nate Diaz, +800
A trilogy meeting between McGregor and Diaz was always inevitable, even two years ago when Diaz left the UFC. He could always come back — he’s never signed an MMA deal with any other company — but it seems more like a long shot than a certainty at this point. “I’ve always looked at Nate as Conor’s first choice because of their history, but does the UFC want to work with Nate anymore?” Chandler said. “They’re not at the moment.”
Dan Hooker and Justin Gaethje, +1400
Two fun names that have been linked to McGregor on occasion in the past, but never in a really serious way.
Michael Chandler, +1800
This shows how much Chandler’s chances of fighting McGregor have declined in the eyes of the Westgate Superbook after the two-year layoff. The implied odds of a +1800 payout are just over 5%.
Dustin Poirier and Elijah Topuria, +3000
McGregor’s two losses to Poirier in 2021 were never going to suit him, but with Poirier looking to retire, it appears that this rivalry is over for good. Topuria is an interesting name, as he is one of the biggest rising stars in the sport. The UFC would have a lot to gain by giving Topuria the exposure that will come with the McGregor fight. However, there is no momentum in this direction yet.
