November 15, 2024 at 07:49 AM ET
Two weeks ago, it was the 50th anniversary of The Rumble in the Jungle, and all the bouquets laid at the feet of the classic heavyweight boxing match between Muhammad Ali and George Foreman got me thinking about — of all things — that weekend. Heavyweight championship fight at UFC 309.
What is contact? It’s about how diminished expectations don’t always predict reality.
Ali’s upset of Foreman is remembered today as one of the fight game’s greatest moments. However, heading into the 1974 bout, it was almost universally expected to be a massacre at the hands of “Big George”, the powerful, devastating, undefeated 25-year-old champion. Ali was three and a half years into his championship career and was 32 years old. If it was still floating like a butterfly, it was a slow, less elusive float that seemed destined to be crushed by one of Foreman’s heavy fists.
Hall of Fame boxing PR man Bill Kaplan, who participated in the event, famously said: “People would pray before the fight that Ali wouldn’t get killed.”
Then Ali came out and shocked every one of these people.
Editor’s Picks
2 related
Now, no one is suggesting that Saturday’s UFC 309 main event between champion Jon Jones and former champion Stipe Miocic (ESPN+ PPV, 10 p.m. ET) can compare in scale to one of the most iconic sporting events of the past half-century. However, what their two fights dovetail is that the fight taking place this weekend at Madison Square Garden in New York also has its doubters, and a lot of them.
Miocic is 42 and hasn’t fought since March 2021, when Francis Ngannou knocked him out to capture the UFC title. In the years since, the heavyweight division has been in a constant state of flux. Ngannou left in 2022 to pursue his dream of pro boxing, and when he returned to MMA this year, it was in the PFL. To fill the void in the UFC, Jones moved up from light heavyweight, where he dominated for a decade, and in March 2023, won the vacant title in his heavyweight debut against Cyril Jeanne. But that was more than a year and a half ago, and the champion has been inactive – partly due to injury – since then.
The heavyweight to watch during all this time has been Tom Aspinall. Since we last saw Miocic, Aspinall has won five fights, all by finish, and all in the first round. However, on Saturday, the Briton will be sitting back and watching. He will be in possession of an interim UFC title belt, a trinket whose sole purpose is to set up a champion vs. champion unification match. This is the fight that will really decide things in the heavyweight division, but for now, the focus is on legacy.
What the UFC 309 main event will deliver is a massive dose of history. Jones is the greatest MMA fighter of all time in any weight class. Miocic is the UFC’s most accomplished heavyweight of all time, an undisputed status he earned by recording three consecutive title defenses. Three may not seem like a lot, but none of the top heavyweight stars of the past — La Ngannou, Cain Velasquez, Brock Lesnar or Randy Couture — have reached it.
So, the ingredients are there to create a rumble-like shock. Can Miocic shake off his old form and reclaim the title he once had? Or will this be another display of excellence to add to Jones’ impressive resume? This is the main story of the weekend, but there are others. Here are five questions that UFC 309 should answer.
1. Does it matter that this major event didn’t happen five years ago? Jon Jones, 37, is the betting favorite to beat Stipe Miocic, 42, in the main event of UFC 309. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zova LLC via Getty Images
Heavyweight Championship: Jon Jones (c) vs. Stipe Miocic
Imagine if Jones and Miocic had met, for example, in the summer of 2019. Miocic had just captured his second heavyweight title by knocking out Daniel Cormier. Jones was in the middle of his second run as light heavyweight champion, having already defended the title 10 times. Both men were energetic and at the top of their game. It could have been a real superhero battle.
That’s not today’s reality, of course, but it is the heavyweight division that enables aging fighters to discover the fountain of youth. Couture won the UFC title at 44, and Cormier held it at 40. Miocic was just a few months away from turning 39 on the night he lost the belt to Ngannou. So, while a title bout like Saturday’s, between a 37-year-old champion and a 42-year-old challenger, wouldn’t be at flyweight, it could work at heavyweight. This division is governed by the sustainable properties of strength and durability, where speed is important, but one can compensate for its diminishment.
2. Should we waltz again because your dance partner stood up for you?
Lightweight: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler 2
UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones puts his title on the line against Stipe Miocic in the main event, while Charles Oliveira takes on Michael Chandler in the co-main event.
Buy UFC 309 on ESPN+ PPV
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
Saturday, November 16, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
• Main card: 10pm ET on ESPN+ PPV
• Prelims: 8 p.m. on ESPNews/FX/Hulu/ESPN+
• Early previews: 6pm on Hulu/ESPN+
Subscribe to ESPN+ for exclusive live UFC events, weigh-ins and more; Dana White’s Contender Series; And more exclusive MMA content.
This rematch of Oliveira’s 2021 knockout is the only other fight between a superstar and a superstar. The appeal may be diminished because we’ve already seen this match play out decisively. However, if you watched Oliveira-Chandler 1, you witnessed an enthralling back-and-forth struggle for the vacant lightweight title.
What are the risks this time? This is unclear, especially for Oliveira, as it appears that champion Islam Makhachev will be ready to defend against Arman Tsarukyan, who was last seen defeating Oliveira in April.
What’s at stake for Chandler? Money, lots of it. If he loses to Oliveira, he could say goodbye to the fight he spent two dormant years clinging to. If Conor McGregor returns, he will not want to do so against an opponent after four losses in his past five fights. That makes this a high-risk roll of the dice for Chandler.
3. Are there reasons to be optimistic that we will see a real fight? Bo Nickal will look to remain undefeated at UFC 309 against Paul Craig. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Middleweight: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
This fight has the potential to be a blowout – the oddsmakers at ESPN BET certainly expect that to be the case, as they peg Nickal as the betting favorite at -1300. But there is one interesting area, which is the area on the carpet. Just six fights into his mixed martial arts career, Nickal is working on his game, but his adventure remains the grappling grappling that made him a three-time NCAA Division I national champion. Going to the canvas has been an issue for Nickal’s previous opponents, but a grappling match would bolster Craig’s power, as the Scot has 13 submissions out of his 17 wins.
But again, wins of any kind have been difficult to come by lately for Craig, who has lost four of his past five matches. Can he put up a fight even if this one goes into his wheelhouse, or will it just be another stepping stone in Nickal’s rise in the sport?
4. Will anyone feel at home in the Octagon?
Lightweight: Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson
Saturday’s bout against Jackson will be Miller’s 45th fight in the UFC, extending a record he will hold for many years to come. The closest to him among active fighters are Clay Guida and Rafael dos Anjos, with 36 fights each, Guida is 42 years old, and dos Anjos is 40 years old. They are not catching up. Miller, whose 26 wins are also a UFC record, has been fighting inside the octagon since 2008, and has never been anything less than entertaining. Why stop watching now?
5. Do all roads end in New York? I play
2:11
Chris Weidman snatches victory over Bruno Silva, but not without controversy
Chris Weidman stops Bruno Silva in Atlantic City, but Silva complains to the referee and replays confirm Weidman was punched in the eye.
Middleweight: Chris Weidman vs. Eric Anders
Those who don’t know New York might think of UFC 309 as a homecoming for Jon Jones. not so. He is from the upstate village of Endicott, a three-hour drive from Madison Square Garden. However, the event marks a homecoming for Weidman, who was born, raised and until recently lived in Baldwin, a short distance from downtown Manhattan on the Long Island Railroad. Weidman is a true local hero, a two-time NCAA Division I All-America wrestler at nearby Hofstra.
Weidman produced one of the most stunning takedowns in UFC history, knocking out Anderson Silva to end a star-studded seven-year reign. But that was 2013, and the 40-year-old has struggled in the past decade, losing seven of his past 10 matches. Weidman hasn’t said he’s retiring, but since this is a hometown fight, is there a more fitting ending?
