Sam Houston was once an afterthought in CUSA, but this year, they own a 5-1 record and are among the most potent offenses in the CFB scene. At home on Wednesday, Douglas Farmer believes they will come away with a big win versus WKU.
16 October 2024 • 15:52 ET • 4 min read
We have an exciting Conference USA contest tonight as the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers travel to Huntsville, Texas to take on Sam Houston.
My Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston predictions have the Hilltoppers conference title up for grabs once again, as this college football team stands as the short favorite at home heading into kickoff at 7:00 ET on Wednesday, October 16.
Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston prediction and best bet
My best bet
Sam Houston Moneyline (-130 at BetMGM)
Selections made at the time of writing may not reflect the immediate odds.
Analytical
A more reckless person might target Sam Houston at -2.5 (-110 on DraftKings), but more often than not in college football, -1 and -2 numbers have some significance in terms of gambling. Coaches are more interested in analyzes such as going for two when a 14-point deficit is reduced by a touchdown. And to be honest, mistakes tend to happen in lower-tier FBS games on Wednesday night. Such an error can lead to a disjointed result 28 – 27 .
This money line avoids that concern.
But to the broader point of supporting the Bearkats, consider the fact that Western Kentucky is a little overrated thanks to UTEP’s blowout last Thursday. Of the Hilltoppers’ 44 points, 17 came thanks to short fields. And while Western Kentucky deserves every ounce of credit for creating those opportunities, they are still inherently unrepeatable.
Looking at the current SP+ rankings, UTEP has the No. 132 offense in the country. Note that there are 134 teams at the FBS level, hence the name of the Covers College Football podcast, “College Football 134.” Ranking No. 132 is, in a word, bad.
Sam Houston isn’t much better, but at 95th, the Bearcats suggest moderate efficiency. They won’t give the Hilltoppers much of a chance.
Sam Houston should dictate the rushing terms of this game, better in both offensive and defensive success rate as well as late downs on both sides of the ball. In fact, by that last stat, the Bearkats rank third in the country in offensive success rate and third- and fourth-down defensive success.
Anyone who backs Western Kentucky here does so almost entirely on reliance on big plays, but the Hilltoppers aren’t producing those at the rate they’re supposed to given their style of play. Ranking No. 71 in dropback success rate but No. 79 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, per CFB charts on Collegefootballinsiders.com, quickly indicates that Western Kentucky is finding explosive plays less frequently than the average team, something that would That will be costly against a defense that focuses on disturbing the passing game on a blitz basis.
Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston in the same game (SGP)
Sam houston money line
Under 55.5
Jay Ducker landing anytime
Getting under 55.5 correlates perfectly with Sam Houston’s money line. If Western Kentucky is unable to produce explosive plays, its offense will have to stop. That should push us towards this under.
Some thought was instead put into taking Western Kentucky’s team total under 24.5, but this disproportionately reduced the investment payout in the same game.
The addition of a touchdown from Bearkats running back Jay Ducker is based entirely on him scoring five times in the last three games, highlighted by three scores in what was arguably Sam Houston’s biggest game of the season so far, against Texas State, two weeks ago. If this is what is asked of Ducker when the moment matters, something similar might be expected in a game that could elevate the Bearkats into a true Conference USA contender.
Learn how to bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Odds Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Opening Odds Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Spread Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston: Sam Houston -2.5 Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Moneyline: Western Kentucky +125, Sam Houston -150 Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Over/Under: 55.5
Odds provided by BetMGM
Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Spread and Over/Under Analysis The first legitimate lines of the week opened with Sam Houston favored by two points, a number that quickly rose to -2.5 and flirted with -3 on Sunday and Monday before settling at -2.5 on Tuesday afternoon. Both Western Kentucky and Sam Houston have gone 5-1 against the spread this season, and each of their ATS losses have come against a Power Four opponent. The total opened at 54.5 on Sunday and quickly jumped to 55 on most books, with some opening at 55.5. It rose to 56 in most sectors on Tuesday. Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston betting trend to know
In its last nine games, Sam Houston has gone 9-1 against the spread, including a 28-23 loss to Western Kentucky last November, when the Bearcats were then 10-point underdogs. Find out more college football betting trends for Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston.
Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Game Information Location: Elliot T. Powers Stadium, Huntsville, Texas Date: Wednesday 10-16-2024 Kickoff: 7:00 PM ET TV: ESPN2 Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Latest Injuries Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Weather
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