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Many foreign policy experts warn that if Iran obtains nuclear weapons, it would destabilize the Middle East and neighboring regions on a massive scale. The first concern is that Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons would pose a major, and perhaps existential, threat to Israel, its old enemy. Other foreign policy experts say Iran would ensure its demise if it launched a nuclear strike on Israel, which is a close defense partner of the United States and has its own nuclear weapons arsenal, which is not declared. Either way, analysts say there would be a serious possibility of a miscalculation that could lead to a nuclear exchange.
Does Iran have a nuclear weapon?
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Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon, but it has a long history of engaging in secret nuclear weapons research in violation of its international obligations. Western analysts say the country has the knowledge and infrastructure necessary to produce a nuclear weapon in a fairly short time if its leaders decide to do so.
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The United States, Israel and other Middle Eastern partners view Iran as a major threat to their interests in the region, and view its potential acquisition of nuclear weapons as a game-changing scenario that must be firmly prevented – by force if necessary.
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Iran has had a civilian nuclear energy program for more than fifty years, and has long maintained that it is for peaceful purposes only. But the revelations in the early 2000s of the country’s secret nuclear sites and research raised concerns in world capitals about its secret quest for a nuclear weapon. Iran’s nuclear program has since become the subject of intense international debate and diplomacy, culminating in the 2015 nuclear agreement.
The United States unilaterally withdrew from that agreement in 2018; Since then, international observers say Iran has significantly expanded its nuclear activities, once again raising concerns about its “rush” to develop a nuclear weapon. In recent weeks, amid Israel’s conflicts against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, many observers have wondered whether Israel would strike Iran to prevent or delay its acquisition of a nuclear weapon. Israel has shown some willingness to do so in the past, striking nuclear reactor sites in both Iraq (1981) and Syria (2007).
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In October 2024, US government officials confirmed a prior intelligence community assessment that Iran did not possess nuclear weapons. US intelligence officials reported that “Iran is not currently undertaking the major nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.” [PDF] In early 2024.
Tehran also said the same thing earlier this year. Iran has repeatedly said that its nuclear program serves only peaceful purposes. A government spokesman said in April 2024: “Nuclear weapons have no place in our nuclear doctrine.”
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How long will it take Iran to develop a nuclear weapon?
Analysts say Iran could produce enough fissile material to make a nuclear weapon within a few months, although many acknowledge that making a nuclear weapon could take longer.
One of the goals of the now-defunct nuclear deal that world powers, including the United States, struck with Iran in 2015 was to place limits on its nuclear activity so that it would take Iran at least a year to produce a weapon, giving governments a fair amount of warning to respond. .
However, after the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018, Iran expanded its nuclear enrichment activities and conducted limited international inspections of its nuclear facilities, most recently in 2021. In June 2024, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Iran could produce the material. The fissile capacity needed to make a weapon in “a week or two.”
But some nuclear technology experts say Iran will have to complete many other difficult and risky steps, including adequate testing, before it has an effective weapon. Even then, Iran would likely want to build an initial arsenal of several weapons to give it a retaliatory strike capability and establish a basic level of deterrence.
Where are Iran’s nuclear facilities?
Iran is involved in nuclear energy-related activities at more than a dozen sites across the country. Its largest enrichment facility is located in Natanz, while its only nuclear power plant is located in Bushehr on the coast of the Persian Gulf.
What are Iran’s missile capabilities?
As demonstrated by its airstrikes against Israel twice this year, Iran has diverse capabilities, including deep and diverse arsenals of cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as drones. US intelligence analysts say that Iran possesses the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the Middle East. (Ballistic missiles take a parabolic trajectory through the atmosphere, travel much faster than drones and cruise missiles, and are generally more difficult to intercept.)
Iran’s longer-range missiles are said to be capable of hitting targets up to 2,000 kilometers (about 1,240 miles), and possibly farther, covering all of the Middle East and parts of Europe. Weapons experts say larger conventional warheads could kill or injure hundreds of people in a dense urban environment. For example, Israel and Russia used bombs with similar payloads in the Gaza Strip and Ukraine, respectively, which reportedly left craters more than twelve meters (forty feet) in diameter.
Iran does not currently possess an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) — the longest-range offensive weapon (more than 5,500 kilometers, or 3,400 miles) — although analysts say its nascent space program could make way for faster development of ICBMs.
The two Iranian strikes on Israel in 2024 were the first attempts to strike Israeli targets with weapons launched from Iran. Tehran reportedly communicated its intentions days before the first strike, in April, which included drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. Israel and its partners also had hours to track and respond to slower-moving drones and attack missiles. However, the second strike, in October, was launched without warning and consisted mostly of ballistic missiles, which can reach their intended targets in minutes.
American and Israeli officials said Iranian air strikes were largely neutralized by defensive systems or failed to cause much damage, but some projectiles were able to penetrate. An analysis of satellite images of the October strike indicated that more than thirty Iranian missiles hit an air base in southern Israel, suggesting that Israel either decided not to defend these particular strikes, or that the defenses failed. Analysts warn that future strikes could be larger and more difficult to intercept, especially if Iran uses more of its more advanced weapons, such as the Fattah-1 and Khaybar Shekan missiles.
What if Iran gets a nuclear weapon?
Many foreign policy experts warn that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose a serious threat to Israel and pose a major challenge to the interests of the United States and its various partners in the Middle East. Some regional analysts fear that a nuclear-armed Iran is likely to be emboldened to pursue a more aggressive foreign policy, not only in the region but through its growing military and economic partnerships with US rivals Russia and China. Iran has recently supplied Russia with various weapons systems, including drones and short-range ballistic missiles, to help support its forces fighting against Ukraine.
There are also concerns that Iran’s possession of these weapons would motivate other countries in the region, especially Saudi Arabia, to seek them as well, which could spur a dangerous nuclear arms race. “If they get one, we have to get one, for security reasons and to balance power in the Middle East. “But we don’t want to see that,” Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in a 2023 Fox News interview.
“If the mullahs’ regime is in the not too distant future [in Iran] “If it could test a nuclear weapon, it would reduce overnight any power Israel and America have in the region,” wrote Reuel Mark Gerecht and Ray Takeh of the Council on Foreign Relations in October 2024. He added: “The United States has never attacked a nuclear-armed state. It is a good guess that Israel…will not attack a nuclear-armed state.”
