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Mike Lawler, the Republican congressman who represents New York’s 17th Congressional District, considers himself a moderate. Mondaire Jones, the former congressman running against Lawler, also considers himself a moderate. Neither candidate in this seesaw race agrees with the self-description offered by the other. “At the end of the day, if you speak like a socialist and vote like a socialist, it’s socialism,” Lawler said in a recent debate. “If she’s talking like a fascist and supporting a fascist for president of the United States for the third time in a row, then she’s a mini-fascist,” Jones responded.
This exaggeration probably won’t affect the outcome of the contest, which is driven more by national trends, but this mostly suburban district north of New York City will help influence which party will control the House. Although Senate races get most of the attention, the nation’s House of Representatives can also make or break the next president’s agenda.
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By this point in the election cycle, everyone knows that the presidential election will be decided in six or seven swing states, and that the Electoral College gives the states in the upper Midwest a big say in the future of the free world. The electors who will determine what the next president will be able to do—the electors who will choose the majority in the House of Representatives—are different. During the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans won California and New York, two states they have traditionally ignored in presidential elections, giving the party its majority. Both parties agree that these countries are capable of making a difference again. The Economist magazine’s forecasts indicate that seven out of 20 close House races are taking place in either New York or California, and are now being conducted by Republicans like Lawler.
In contrast to the Electoral College, which gives the Republican candidate an advantage equal to about two points of national vote share in these elections, the House map is fair. Democrats used to complain about being at a disadvantage due to gerrymandering (the practice of politicians drawing district maps to their advantage). Now, our estimates are that Democrats need to win by just one point to have a 50:50 chance of taking control of the House.
The tightness of national elections means that control of the House of Representatives changes hands frequently. Between 1955 and 1995, Democrats held a majority. Since 1995, control has changed hands five times. But the House has not flipped in the opposite direction of a presidential race since the 19th century, and both parties agree that is unlikely to happen this year. They also agree that whoever wins the majority will be by a narrow majority. This means that if Donald Trump wins, Republicans will likely have a majority in the House and Senate (Republicans are the favorites to win the Senate regardless of who takes over the White House).
“We’ve expanded the map of competitive districts, which gives us more paths,” says one House Democratic operative, referring to how Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race has boosted low-vote candidates. However, the Democrat believes that only about three dozen races are truly competitive, a view shared by Republican strategists: “I think it ultimately comes down to a Republican or Democratic majority plus five.”
Dial five to close
The difference between a five- and 10-seat majority could have enormous public policy consequences, especially if Republicans win the House. Their current narrow majority has made governing nearly impossible over the past two years, with party nihilists wielding disproportionate influence. For example, the last fiscal year was about halfway through, when Congress approved a permanent government funding bill. Because the next president’s ability to govern depends on the shape of Congress, it is perhaps surprising that we spend less money on House campaigns than on Senate races (let alone presidential contests).
The Congressional Leadership Fund, the most important Republican political action committee to win the House, raised $81.4 million from July to September. The House Majority PAC, the Democratic equivalent, received about $99 million. In the Texas Senate race alone, the two candidates raised a total of $166 million. Presidential candidates raised $1.4 billion (and campaign groups raised an additional $1.3 billion). This reflects the fact that House races have been eaten up by national politics. If Kamala Harris or Trump somehow ends up controlling the White House and not the House, it will be because of the candidates who managed to defy the political gravity in their little corner of the country.
New York’s 17th District is an example of this. There are nearly 90,000 more Democrats than Republicans in Lawler’s seat, which Biden won by double digits in 2020. The nominee will have to buck national trends if he wants to stay in Congress. On a recent Sunday, he visited New Life Pentecostal Church in New York’s Hudson Valley. The church’s pastor, DeNucci Cowan, does not endorse the candidates, but he welcomes anyone who would speak to his congregation, which is made up of immigrants from Antigua, Haiti, Ghana, Guyana, Jamaica and Kenya. Mr. Lawler acknowledged that he may not have much in common with those sitting in the seats, but said that was okay because that is the essence of democracy. Paraphrasing Ed Koch, the former mayor of New York City, he joked: “If you agree with me on nine out of 12, vote for me. If you agree with me on 12 out of 12, get your head checked.”
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