New York’s 17th US Congressional District: Lawler (Republican) 49%, Jones (Democrat) 44%.
New York’s 18th US Congressional District: Ryan (D) 51%, Esposito (R) 42%
The final Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll for New York’s 17th Congressional District found that 49% of voters support incumbent Republican Rep. Michael Lawler for Congress, while 44% support Democrat Mondaire Jones. Seven percent are still undecided before Election Day. Since earlier this month, Lawler’s support has risen four points, from 45% to 49%, while Jones’ support remains at 44%.
In the 18th District, 51% support the current Democratic candidate, Pat Ryan, while 42% support Republican Allison Esposito. Seven percent are undecided. Since earlier this month, Ryan’s support has risen by three points, from 48% to 51%, while Esposito’s support has fallen by one point.
“There is a stark gender split in the 17th District, with men leading Lawler by 27 points, women 16 points ahead of Jones, while men are even more divided in the 18th District: 47% support Esposito and 46% support Ryan,” said Spencer Kimball. , executive director of Emerson College Polling, said women trail Ryan by 20 points.
A majority of voters (52%) have a favorable view of Lawler, while 44% have a favorable view of Jones. Likewise, 52% have a favorable view of current Ryan, while 41% have a favorable opinion of Esposito.
Presidential elections
In the seventeenth district, 50% support Vice President Kamala Harris and 47% support former President Donald Trump, while 1% support a third party option and 2% are undecided. Harris gained one point, while Trump lost two points since the early October poll.
In the 18th District, 49% support Donald Trump for president, 48% support Kamala Harris, while 2% support someone else and 2% are undecided. Harris and Trump have each gained one point since the early October poll.
The most important issues
The most important issue for voters in the 17th District is the economy at 30%, followed by immigration (20%), housing affordability (15%), crime (11%), and threats to democracy (10%).
The top issue for voters in the 18th District is also the economy, at 32%, followed by immigration (19%), housing affordability (14%), threats to democracy (11%), and crime (8%).
Voters were asked whether they were financially better off now than they were a year ago, about the same, or worse off.
Half of voters (50%) in the 17th District say they are worse off financially today than they were a year ago, while 32% say they do about the same, and 18% are better off. 48% in the 18th district are worse off, 35% are about the same, and 18% are better off.
methodology
The Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill poll of New York’s 17th and 18th Districts was conducted October 24-26, 2024. The sample of likely voters in New York’s 17th District is n = 475, with a credibility interval, similar to the poll’s margin of error (Department of Education), +/- 4.4 percentage points, and the sample of likely voters in New York’s 18th District is n = 450, with a credibility interval of +/- 4.6 percentage points.
The datasets are weighted by gender, education, race, age, and party affiliation based on a model of 2024 likely voters. Turnout models for each state are based on U.S. Census benchmarks, exit polls, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subgroups based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the survey score range, and with a 95% confidence interval, the survey falls outside the score range 1 in 20 times.
Data were collected by calling mobile phones via text message via MMS to the web (phone list provided by Aristotle) and online voter panel provided by CINT. The survey was presented in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, as well as full results, demographics and cross-tabs can be found under Full Results. The surveys were funded by Nexstar Media.
Full NY17 results
Full NY18 results
