Retailers can expect another shopping period from Black Friday to Cyber Monday. Bain expects U.S. retail sales to reach $75 billion for the first time ever, growing about 5% year over year and exceeding our overall holiday forecast of 3%. What’s more, about 8% of holiday sales identified by Bain will come between Black Friday and Cyber Monday this year — the highest share since 2019. This underscores the enduring importance of the prime shopping weekend.
Using proprietary credit card data and analytics from Pyxis, we examined American consumer shopping patterns over the past five years to identify the seven best holiday shopping days. The Black Friday to Cyber Monday period remains pivotal, with Black Friday consistently ranked as the best day for sales, holding the top two spots in recent years. This makes Black Friday a key opportunity for retailers to improve their promotional strategies, ensure adequate inventory, and optimal in-store experiences.
However, Cyber Monday has seen its importance diminish, falling out of the top sales days after 2019. E-commerce growth has slowed, and many shoppers feel they can easily shop online at any time, with deals extending beyond the weekend. Basic.
Other shopping days are also gaining momentum. In 2021 and 2023, the days leading up to Christmas topped the charts. In 2023, the day before Thanksgiving emerges as a major shopping day, it will likely be affected by store closures on Thanksgiving. This holiday season, with Christmas falling midweek, we expect Black Friday to regain its place as the best day to shop.
How can we help Pyxis
Pyxis, Bain’s consumer intelligence division, helps companies navigate complex consumer environments and stay ahead of the competition. With one of the world’s largest transaction data ecosystems, Pyxis has completed over 1,500 projects, providing SKU-level visibility and revealing the transformations that drive growth, market share, loyalty, product development, mergers and acquisitions, and more.
Related 2024 Holiday Shopping Forecasts
Bain expects less than 3% growth in U.S. retail sales this holiday season. By following five tips, retailers can still deliver happiness.
