There is nothing better than MACtion on Saturday.
That’s what we have here, as the Toledo Rockets (3-1) welcome the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (1-3) in College Football Playoff action in Week 6.
Miami (Ohio) enters this game with a 1-3 record and coming off its first win of the year over UMass. They’re also 1-3 against the spread, and every RedHawk game remains under the shutout total.
Toledo enters this game with a 3-1 record and looking to rebound from its first loss of the year to Western Kentucky. The Rockets hold a 2-2 record against the spread and have gotten past it in three games.
Winds of around 9 miles per hour will be present during this game, but with no rain and moderate temperatures, the weather will not significantly impact the game.
The Rockets enter as -6.5 favorites with the over/under set at 44.
Read on for my Toledo vs. Miami (Ohio) predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
Miami (OH) vs Toledo Picks, Prediction
The best bet on Toledo vs Miami (OH) is below, with the best line available at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo Peak: Under 44.5
Miami (OH) vs Toledo Odds, Spread, Lines
Saturday 5 October
3:30 PM ET
ESPN+
Miami (Ohio) OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline
+6.5
-110
44.5
-110° / -110°
+210
Toledo OddsSpread Total Money Line
-6.5
-110
44.5
-110° / -110°
-260
Miami (OH) vs. Toledo Point Spread: Toledo -6.5 (-110) Miami (OH) vs. Toledo Over/Under: 44.5 points Miami (OH) vs. Toledo Money Line: Miami (OH) +210 · Toledo -260
Miami (OH) Football vs Toledo Football Preview
Miami-OH RedHawks betting preview: Making life difficult
Chuck Martin’s team finally got its first win over UMass last week and will look to build on that momentum as conference play gets underway.
The RedHawks have struggled to score, averaging just 12 points per game and five yards per play with a paltry 39% success rate. Despite having the best starting position in the country, they scored just 1.78 points per chance.
Quarterback Brett Gabbert leads an offense that passes the ball more than 55% of the time. He has completed 56.8% of his passes for a 6.6 YPA, but has struggled in turnovers, throwing six picks on three touchdowns.
As a team, Miami posted a 45% pass success rate with 2.25 20-yard passes per game.
The loss of Rashad Amos in the offseason hampered the running game. The RedHawks are averaging just 85.5 yards per game on 3.1 YPC. Keyon Mozee leads the team with 28 rushes for 174 yards.
As a team, Miami (Ohio) posted a rushing success rate of 29%, ranking 130th nationally.
While the offense struggles to score, the defense has made life difficult for opposing offenses, allowing 22 points per game, 5.9 yards per play, and 2.36 points per opportunity. While the RedHawks rank 112th nationally with a 45% success rate allowed, they have made life difficult by limiting explosive plays.
The must-have app for college football bettors
Best NCAAF Betting Scoreboard
Free picks from proven pros
Direct winning odds for your bets
Toledo Rockets Betting Preview: Looking to bounce back
Toledo scored a dud against Western Kentucky last week, which was likely a disappointment game after its blowout win over Mississippi State the week before.
The Rockets are averaging 37.2 points per game, 5.7 yards per play on a 46% success rate, and 4.65 points per opportunity.
Tucker Gleason leads the passing attack with 862 yards and 11 touchdowns. He completed 60.2% of his passes and averaged 8.0 yards per attempt.
The RedHawks posted a 49% pass success rate with 2.75 passes of 20+ yards per game.
However, Toledo is a rushing offense first, with a 46% rushing rate which puts it in the top 40 nationally. Four players, including Gleason, have compiled more than 30 rushing attempts this year, while Willie Shaw leads the team with 148 yards and three scores.
As a team, the Rockets are averaging 136 yards per game on 3.7 rushing yards with a 45% rushing success rate.
Meanwhile, the defense is allowing 19 points per game by five yards per play with a success rate allowed of 38%. But it’s worth noting that the 23% dilapidation rate ranks 23rd nationally.
Analysis of the Toledo vs. Miami (Ohio) match.
Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show how Toledo and Miami (OH) match up statistically:
Offense Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo Defense Toledo Offense vs. Miami (Ohio) Defense Speed Play / Other Tackle PFF13231 Coverage PFF11837Special Teams SP+73115 Center 810927 Seconds per play28.3 (84)26.6 (56)Rush rate44% (127)56% (42)
How to pick my college football predictions for Miami (OH) vs Toledo
As of this writing, 79% of bets backed Toledo to cover the 6.5-point spread, but 12% of the money was on the favorite.
According to Action Network’s PRO report, Toledo is attracting sharp moves, but big money bets are in on Miami (OH) to keep the game within striking distance.
My tendency is to support Toledo, but it’s not my favorite game.
My favorite bet in this game is to play all the way.
Even with a total in the low 40s, it appears the market has not kept up with Miami’s style of play. With the RedHawks’ slow pace on offense and their ability to contain explosiveness, every drive takes time off the clock.
Choose: Under 44.5 (play up to 42.5)
How to watch Miami (OH) vs Toledo Live: start time, TV channel, location
Location: Glass Bowl, Toledo, OHD Date: Saturday, October 5 Kickoff Time: 3:30pm EST / Streaming: ESPN+
Miami (OH) vs Toledo betting trends
Matchups Miami (OH) is 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATSMiami (OH) is 4-0 to UnderToledo is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATSToledo is 3-1 to Over
Miami (OH) vs Toledo Weather
About the author
Matt contributes weekly individual game tips to the college football team. He joined Action Network in 2020 and has been writing about sports analytics, specifically related to fantasy football, since 2016.
Follow Matt Wispey @wispeythekid on Twitter/X.